ASA CFB 3-PACK
- Handicapper
- ASA, Inc.
- League
- NCAAF
- Competition
- Northwestern vs Michigan
- Time
- 10/23/2021 12:00 PM
- Bet Type
- Over / Under
- Pick
-
Northwestern vs Michigan Under 51 (-108)
(BetRivers)
- Outcome
- Win
- Analysis
- #347/348 ASA PLAY ON 8* Under 51 Points – Northwestern vs Michigan, Saturday at 12 PM ET - We anticipate a defensive type game in this Big 10 clash. Michigan’s defense is one of the best in the nation and NW will really struggle on offense here. The only team that has topped 17 points on the Wolverines this year is Nebraska. They allowed 29 in that game (32-29 Michigan win) and they have now had 2 weeks off since so the defense will come into this game with a chip on their shoulder. Michigan is allowing just 309 YPG on 4.7 YPP. They face NW offense that is pedestrian at best. Their numbers are a bit misleading as 3 of the last 4 defenses they’ve faced were ranked 115th, 100th, and 89th in YPP allowed. The one decent defense they’ve faced in the last month (Nebraska ranked 34th) held them to 7 points on just 293 yards. Both these teams rely heavily on the run with Michigan averaging 45 carries per game and NW 40 carries per game. That eats clock. The Wolverine offense has shown the ability to score if pressed by the opposing offense to “keep up” so to speak (see Nebraska) but that isn’t the way we see this game playing out. Michigan is a 23 point favorite, we see them getting a lead and grinding out a win in the 2nd half. They don’t have to win big and pile on points, especially with a huge game vs Michigan State on deck. Northwestern’s defense has had their ups & downs but they have held half their opponents (3) to less than 10 points. NW HC Fitzgerald is a great defensive mind and should do enough to slow down the Wolverines. The last 4 games vs these 2 teams have totaled 37, 38, 19, and 45 points. We like the UNDER here.
