- Analysis
- #405 SAN DIEGO ST (-) over Air Force at 7 PM EST
Busting in off a less than impressive six-point road win at San Jose State, undefeated San Diego State will flex its muscles a touch when it visits Air Force on Saturday evening. The Falcons have just ripped off four consecutive SU and ATS wins over Florida Atlantic, New Mexico, Wyoming, and Boise State and the Flyboys are in perfect position to fall.
The Aztecs have owned the upper hand in this series lately posting a powerful 8-0 SU and 6-2 ATS record in the last eight meetings. Equally impressive, as a conference guest, SDSU has been a solid investment inking a fabulous 29-11 SU and 26-14 ATS mark in its last 40 battles including a reliable 18-10 SU and 20-8 ATS in this run priced as an underdog or a favorite of -8 or less. Also, in the underdog role, head coach Brady Hoke’s men have been worth the wager notching a sensational 13-4 ATS tally including a nearly perfect 11-1 ATS if they check in with steam off a straight up win.
Yes, Air Force does an excellent job of running the football. The Falcons chew up an average of 336.4 yards per game on the ground. Unfortunately, the Flyboys are going up against the No. 1-ranked rush defense in the country. The Aztecs are allowing an average of only 61.2 yards per game overland and have held AFA to an average of only 234.4 rushing yards per game in their last eight wins in this series. To make matters worse, the Falcons have struggled as a conference favorite notching a soft 43-59 ATS mark dating back to the start of the 1999 season including a feeble 20-35 ATS provided they check in off a conference game. With those two parameters clicking and Air Force facing an opponent that was on the road last, this technical situation falls to a nasty 7-19 ATS.
Ranked 22nd in the Associated Press poll, the Aztecs are the Mountain West’s only undefeated team. Under head coach Troy Calhoun’s direction, the Falcons own a dismal 4-18 SU mark against ranked opponents, and they’ll have trouble stepping up in class and laying points in this battle. Take San Diego State. Thanks and best of luck, Tom.
