- Analysis
- #408 NOTRE DAME (-) over USC at 7:30 PM EST
Off a week of rest and with the Jeweled Shillelagh Trophy up for grabs, Notre Dame will use the strength of its home turf to pound visiting USC under the Saturday night lights in South Bend. The Trojans enter this contest off a bye and an ugly 42-26 blowout home loss to the Utes and this is going to be a difficult trip for interim head coach Donte Williams and his players.
At home in this rivalry, the Fighting Irish have played extremely well lately notching a 4-0 SU and 3-1 ATS tally in their last four tries. In addition, inside Notre Dame Stadium, head coach Brian Kelly’s troops have defended their backyard well notching an incredible 26-1 SU (14-13 ATS) mark in their last 27 battles. In this run competitively priced as an underdog or a favorite of -13 or less, the Dame cruises to a profitable 9-1 SU and 8-2 ATS. Also, in the regular season fighting with a week of rest, UND sports a tremendous 39-8 SU and 29-18 ATS record including a highly profitable 24-5 SU and 21-8 ATS in this set if the Irish take the field with confidence off a straight up win. With those two parameters live and Notre Dame facing a foe that holds a team won/loss percentage of .400 or better, this angle jets to a solid 17-5 SU and 18-4 ATS.
Dating back to the start of the 2017 regular season, the Men of Troy have struggled to cover numbers inking a soft 20-31 ATS mark in their last 51 lined games. Surprisingly, in this run priced as an underdog or a short favorite of -3 or less, USC falls to a pitiful 4-12 ATS. Even worse, Pac-12 road favorites or underdogs grabbing +7 or less hold a woeful 21-38-1 ATS provided they are lined up against a non-conference opponent. If our “play against” side takes the field off a conference war, this situation crumbles to a horrible 2-11 ATS. Finally, on foreign soil fighting a foe that takes the turf with steam off a SU and ATS win, the Trojans carry a stiff 18-45 ATS record including a filthy 7-33 ATS provided their opponent owns a team won/loss percentage of .650 or higher. With those two parameters live and USC priced as a favorite or a pup of +8 or less, this situation falls to a ridiculous 3-29 ATS.
The Men of Troy may own the talent to compete in this rivalry game. However, the Fighting Irish have a massive edge in the head coaching department and that fact, combined with homefield advantage, will be all the Domers need for this blowout victory. Take Notre Dame. Thanks and best of luck, Tom.
