OSKEIM'S 100% (9-0 ATS) CONF USA GAME OF WEEK
- Handicapper
- Oskeim Sports
- League
- NCAAF
- Competition
- Western Kentucky vs Florida International
- Time
- 10/23/2021 07:00 PM
- Bet Type
- Point Spread
- Pick
-
Florida International +15.5 (-110)
(BetMGM)
- Outcome
- Win
- Analysis
- I bet numbers, not teams and my math model only favors Western Kentucky by 10.93 points in this game. The Hilltoppers are traveling for the second consecutive week, have failed to cover the point spread in two of their last three games, and own one of the worst defenses in college football. Western Kentucky is allowing 35.3 points and 475 total yards per game at 6.1 yards per play to teams that would combine to average just 5.4 yards per play against a mediocre defense.
Laying double-digits on the road with a team that ranks 120th in the nation in scoring defense, 117th in red-zone defense (.929) and 126th in third-down conversion percentage defense (.511) is tantamount to professional malfeasance, especially when the road favorite is 8-18-1 ATS as a favorite, 2-6 ATS in their last eight October affairs and 1-4 ATS in their previous five road games versus teams with a losing home record.
Florida International head coach Butch Davis is 11-6-1 ATS as a home underdog, including a perfect 9-0 ATS versus an opponent entering off a SU and ATS win. The Panthers are just 1-5 this season but they have played better than their record suggests as they have won the overall stats in three games. The most recent example occurred in Week Six where the Panthers hosted Charlotte. Florida International (+3.5) outgained Charlotte 8.7 yards per play to 5.6 yards per play and finished +190 in total yards after removing garbage time yards.
The Panthers averaged just 4.3 points in 8 trips inside Charlotte's 40-yard line and the 49ers benefitted from a defensive touchdown (FIU was -1 in turnovers). Based on the underlying metrics, Florida International should have won the game outright but lost 45-33 and failed to cover the spread. With Florida International standing at 9-3 ATS in its last twelve games as a home underdog, grab the inflated number with the Panthers and invest with confidence.
