OSKEIM'S 10-1 ATS NCAA FOOTBALL STEAM PLAY
- Handicapper
- Oskeim Sports
- League
- NCAAF
- Competition
- Miami Ohio vs Ball State
- Time
- 10/23/2021 03:30 PM
- Bet Type
- Point Spread
- Pick
-
Miami Ohio +5.5 (-109)
(BetRivers)
- Outcome
- Win
- Analysis
- My math model favors Ball State by 3.75 points in this game so the line is relatively fair but the Cardinals are a money-burning 14-29 ATS in their last 43 home games, 9-24 ATS in their last 33 games versus .499 or worse opposition and 7-20 ATS in their previous 27 games as home favorites. In contrast, the Redhawks are a profitable 18-6 SU and 17-7 ATS in conference play since 2017, including 9-2 SU and 10-1 ATS as underdogs of seven points or less. Miami Ohio also applies to a very strong 59-22 ATS momentum system of mine that invests on certain college football underdogs of 3.5 to 10 points that are coming off a double-digit win over a conference opponent (Miami Ohio defeated Akron 34-21 last week).
The Redhawks possess a significant advantage from the line of scrimmage in this matchup. Ball State's defense ranks 120th in the nation in success rate allowed (49%) and 125th in standard down success rate allowed (56%). The Cardinals' defensive line is 106th in the country in Havoc generated (9%) and 127th in tackles for loss rate (1.3%). In contrast, the Redhawks stop unit ranks 65th in success rate allowed (42%) and 92nd in standard down success rate allowed (50%).
Miami Ohio's defensive front creates a lot of Havoc (12%; 38th in the nation), boasting an 11.3% sack rate (10th) and a 9.2% tackles for loss rate (45th). The Redhawks front seven should be able to exploit a subpar Ball State's offensive line that ranks 81st in success rate (82%) and 76th in sacks allowed (2.29 per game). Overall, I have Miami Ohio's defensive line ranked 71st in the country, which is substantially better than the Cardinals' defensive line (116th).
Miami Ohio is 3-1 SU and ATS in the past four meetings in this rivalry and the Redhawks are primed to once again walk away with the Red Bird Rivalry Trophy. Ball State's three-game winning streak has been driven, in part, by turnover luck (6 takeaways L/2 weeks) and the Cardinals have a 184-105 rushing yards per game deficit over their last three contests. Finally, Ball State is just 6-7 SU and 3-10 ATS versus teams with a worse winning percentage, including 1-7 ATS at home. Grab the points with the live road underdog and invest with confidence.
