OSKEIM'S NCAA FOOTBALL HIGH ROLLER SHOCKER
- Handicapper
- Oskeim Sports
- League
- NCAAF
- Competition
- Kent State vs Ohio
- Time
- 10/23/2021 01:00 PM
- Bet Type
- Point Spread
- Pick
-
Ohio +6 (-110)
(DraftKings)
- Outcome
- Loss
- Analysis
- My math model favors Kent State by 3.15 points in this game and the Golden Flashes apply to a very negative 13-39 ATS statistical profile indicator of mine that invests against certain road favorites with a subpar rushing defense following back-to-back games in which they allowed 5.5 or more rushing yards per game. In contrast, the Bobcats fall into a profitable 45-14 ATS system of mine that invests on certain college football teams with a powerful ground attack (4.8 to more yards per carry) off a game in which they outrushed their opponent by 150 or more yards. Let's also note that Ohio has won six straight games in this series (4-2 ATS).
Ohio is coming off a 27-26 loss to Buffalo last week but the Bobcats dominated the game from the line of scrimmage. Ohio outgained Buffalo 6.9 yards per play to 6.2 yards per play and the Bobcats possess a significant advantage over Kent State's defense. Ohio's attack is ranked 45th in the nation in success rate (46%), 24th in standard down success rate (53%) and 54th in explosive play rate (14%). I love backing home underdogs with a strong ground game, especially when they are matched up against a subpar rush defense.
Ohio's offense is ranked 17th in rush success rate (52%), 1st in yards per rush attempt (7.2), 3rd in explosive rush rate (17.5%) and 9th in EPA/Rush (0.36). The Bobcats should dominate time of possession and shorten the game against a really bad Kent State rush defense that is 112th in rush success rate allowed, 119th in yards per rush attempt allowed (6.0), 111th in explosive rush rate allowed (15.8%) and 107th in EPA/Rush (0.26).
Overall, Kent State's defense ranks 99th in success rate allowed, 102nd in standard down success rate allowed (51%), 100th in yards per play (6.40) and 111th in explosive plays allowed (16%). From a technical standpoint, Ohio is 15-5 ATS in its last 20 games as an underdog (4-0 ATS L/4 home dog) and 4-0 ATS in its last four conference affairs, whereas the Golden Flashes have failed to cover their past five road games. Ohio has covered the Vegas number in three consecutive games and has not lost a game by more than a touchdown since 2015. Grab the points with Ohio and invest with confidence.