Matt Fargo - Oregon vs UCLA

Fargo's CFB Saturday Triple Play (61% YTD)

Handicapper
Matt Fargo
League
NCAAF
Competition
Oregon vs UCLA
Time
10/23/2021 03:30 PM
Bet Type
Point Spread
Pick
Oregon +2.5 (-110) (DraftKings)
Outcome
Win
Analysis
This is a play on the OREGON DUCKS as part of our CFB Afternoon Triple Play. Oregon is coming off a win over California but it was by just a touchdown and the Ducks have now failed to cover their last four games. They were favored in all of those games, three by double digits. Oregon has been fairly average on both sides of the ball but will be going up against an opponent with similar stat lines. Besides the loss at Stanford, the only other road game resulted in a win at Ohio St. The Ducks have done well recently as underdogs, including wins in the Rose Bowl against Wisconsin, the Pac-12 Championship against USC last year and the win over aforementioned Ohio St. The Bruins, now 5-2 and 3-1 in the Pac 12, went to Seattle, playing a game against a desperate Washington team and coming away with a touchdown win. The victory over LSU early in the season looked good then but the Tigers are not what they were a couple years ago. The Ducks are 6-2 ATS in their last eight games against teams with a winning record while the Bruins are 3-9 ATS in their last 12 games as a home favorite. Here, we play on road teams where the line is +3 to -3 averaging between 7.5 and 8.3 ypa going up against teams allowing between 6.4 and 7.5 ypa, after allowing 5.5 or less passing ypa last game. This situation is 26-5 ATS (83.9 percent) over the last 10 seasons. 9* (377) Oregon Ducks

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