OSKEIM'S 90% (9-1 ATS) ACC GAME OF THE WEEK
- Handicapper
- Oskeim Sports
- League
- NCAAF
- Competition
- Boston College vs Louisville
- Time
- 10/23/2021 04:00 PM
- Bet Type
- Point Spread
- Pick
-
Boston College +6.5 (-109)
(BetRivers)
- Outcome
- Loss
- Analysis
- My math model only favors Louisville by 3.11 points in this game and that projection takes into account the fact that the Cardinals are coming off a bye week (worth approximately 0.9 points). With that said, the Cardinals have failed to cover the spread in five of their last six games following a bye week. Boston College arrives off a disappointing 33-7 loss to North Carolina State in which the Eagles only trailed 10-7 at halftime. Boston College deserved to lose but the final score is misleading due to the fact that the Eagles finished minus-2 in turnovers and gave up a defensive touchdown on a botched punt.
Recency bias provides us with excellent line value as bettors are focused entirely on last week's results and have lost sight of the fact that Louisville entered its bye week on a two-game losing streak. The Cardinals are a money-burning 9-24-1 ATS in their last 34 games versus .501 or greater opposition and 7-17 ATS in their last 24 October affairs.
With starting quarterback Phil Jurkovec sidelined with an injury, the Eagles have relied upon their ground attack to set up play-action for backup quarterback Dennis Grosel. The matchup is favorable for Boston College's offense as the Cardinals rank 102nd in the nation in rushing success allowed, 103rd in yards per rush attempt, 98th in explosive rush percentage and 120th in EPA/Rush. Boston College should be able to establish the run, thereby setting up Grosel for success through the air against a Louisville secondary that has been 0.1 yards per pass attempt worse than average in 2021.
Louisville's attack has been 0.5 yards per play better than average (6.3 yards per play against teams that would combine to allow 5.8 yards per play to a mediocre offense) but the Eagles' defense has been excellent away from home this season, yielding just 16.7 points and 20.4 yards per point in three road contests. Boston College's stop unit is ranked 32nd in success rate allowed, 15th in standard down success rate allowed, 37th in EPA/Play and 22nd in explosive plays allowed.
The Eagles are a profitable 20-7-1 ATS as underdogs (12 outright upsets), 24-10-1 ATS in conference play and 9-3 ATS in their last twelve games following a loss, including 5-1 ATS in their previous six games off a double-digit home defeat. The road team is 5-2 ATS in the past seven meetings in this series and Boston College has covered four straight against the Cardinals. With Boston College standing at 9-1 ATS on the road off back-to-back conference losses since 1992, grab the points with the Eagles and invest with confidence.
