OSKEIM'S #1 NCAA FOOTBALL MAC GAME OF WEEK
- Handicapper
- Oskeim Sports
- League
- NCAAF
- Competition
- Western Michigan vs Toledo
- Time
- 10/23/2021 03:30 PM
- Bet Type
- Point Spread
- Pick
-
Toledo +2.5 (-109)
(BetRivers)
- Outcome
- Win
- Analysis
- My math model actually favors Toledo by 1.38 points in this game but last week's disparate results give us excellent line value on the home underdog. Toledo enters off back-to-back losses, including last week's 23-20 overtime defeat at Central Michigan as a five-point favorite. However, a closer look at the underlying metrics in that game establishes that Toledo was the better team. Toledo outgained Central Michigan 5.3 yards per play to 5.0 yards per play and finished with better offensive and standard down success rates.
Western Michigan has won five of its last six games, including last week's 64-31 dismantling of Kent State. The Broncos are a money-burning 4-9-1 ATS in their last fourteen road affairs, 6-14-1 ATS in their last 21 games following a win and 7-18-1 ATS in their previous 26 games after covering the Vegas number. Western Michigan is 1-4-1 ATS in its last six conference clashes and 0-4 ATS in its last four games versus .499 or worse opposition, while the home team is 4-1 SU and ATS in the past five meetings in this series.
Toledo is one of the most experienced teams in the nation (No. 20 in returning production) and the players understand that a win over Western Michigan is mandatory if they want any chance of winning the MAC West Division. The Rockets have not been a home underdog since 2019 when they defeated BYU 28-21 and I expect the Rockets to use the point spread as motivation in this game. Grab the points with Toledo and invest with confidence.
