Nelly's Sports - Tampa Bay Rays vs Toronto Blue Jays

Nelly’s Tuesday AL East Best Bet Total

Handicapper
Nelly's Sports
League
MLB
Competition
Tampa Bay Rays vs Toronto Blue Jays
Time
09/14/2021 07:07 PM
Bet Type
Over / Under
Pick
Tampa Bay Rays vs Toronto Blue Jays Over 9 (+100) (5Dimes)
Outcome
Loss
Analysis
The Rays had a flat outing on Monday coming off a tough extra-inning result on Sunday. The Rays have scored four or more runs in 30 of the past 36 games even after falling short Monday. Tampa Bay is eighth in MLB in the past two weeks in team wOBA and the Rays have scored the most runs in baseball this season. Toronto may catch the Rays in runs as currently the second best scoring team in MLB. Toronto isn’t just #1 in team wOBA the past two weeks, they are #1 by a mile with an outrageous .427 (for reference the Jays are #1 for the full season at just .343). Off the 22-run performance Sunday there was no letdown Monday with eight runs against a tough Rays pitching staff. Rays pitching has faltered of late however with a 6.33 bullpen ERA in the past 10 games and nine straight games without a starter passing five innings. The Rays are in an eighth straight road game and they’ve used 11 pitchers the past two days. Toronto received a stunning starting effort yesterday but the Jays have also had short starting efforts in three of the past five games for an extra workload for the bullpen. Jose Berrios has a 4.68 ERA in his last six starts as he hasn’t been a dominant option for the Jays, including struggling in his last two home starts. Drew Rasmussen has been on a great run since moving into the rotation but he has cleared five innings just twice this season. Three of his last five starts have been against Boston as he may just have a good matchup with that lineup. In that five-start run his ERA is 1.64 but with a 4.12 xFIP and a huge decline in his strikeout rate compared to when he pitched in relief. Rasmussen has had a great season but there are some red flags and Toronto presents a great challenge. Last night Toronto had 17 hits as they easily could have scored more than the eight runs in eight innings that they posted Monday as the ‘over’ run for the Rays in road games should continue. Thank you for playing with Nelly’s and Best of Luck.

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