Sean Murphy - Cleveland Indians vs Minnesota Twins

EARLY MLB TUES. AFTERNOON RL ROUT [16-5 RUN]

Handicapper
Sean Murphy
League
MLB
Competition
Cleveland Indians vs Minnesota Twins
Time
09/14/2021 03:10 PM
Bet Type
Run Line
Pick
Cleveland Indians +1.5 (-190) (5Dimes)
Outcome
Win
Analysis
My selection is on Cleveland +1.5 runs over Minnesota at 3:10 pm et on Tuesday. While we're being asked to lay significant juice to get the insurance run with the Indians here, I believe the price is warranted. Note that the Indians enter this series on the heels of a three-game sweep at the hands of the Brewers. They haven't lost four games in a row since back in the first week of July. Only once previously this season have they lost four consecutive games by more than a run - something they'll be looking to avoid here. Note that the Indians are 15-3 when coming off a game in which they scored one run or less this season, as is the case here, outscoring opponents by an average margin of 1.9 runs in that spot. They're also 11-3 when coming off a loss by six runs or more this season, outscoring opponents by 2.2 runs on average in that situation. Meanwhile, the Twins were involved in a make-up game at Yankee Stadium yesterday, blowing a late 5-0 lead in an eventual 6-5 extra innings defeat. They're just 35-41 as a favorite this season, outscored by an average margin of 0.2 runs. When coming off three losses in their last four games this season, they check in 16-32, outscored by 1.8 runs on average in that spot. Twins rookie starter Joe Ryan flirted with a perfect game against the Indians just last week. Here, I expect Cleveland to do a better job of getting to the rookie in their second look. Indians starter Triston McKenzie has been their most reliable starter over the last month or so and checks in with a sparkling 1.42 ERA and 0.53 WHIP over his last three starts and a 1.12 WHIP in 11 road outings this season. Of course, grabbing the insurance run becomes even more helpful when you consider this is only a seven-inning game (the first half of a double-header). Take Cleveland +1.5 runs (5*).

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