Team Del Genio - Baltimore Orioles vs Detroit Tigers

TDG’s 25* MLB AMERICAN LEAGUE GAME OF MONTH

Handicapper
Team Del Genio
League
MLB
Competition
Baltimore Orioles vs Detroit Tigers
Time
07/30/2021 07:10 PM
Bet Type
Moneyline
Pick
Detroit Tigers -140 (5D Reduced Juice)
Outcome
Loss
Analysis
Our 25* MLB American League Game of the Month is on Detroit with the money line versus Baltimore at 7:10 pm et. The Detroit Tigers are turning the corner under manager A.J. Hinch after years of futility. They have won ten of their fourteen games since returning to action after the All-Star break. After winning their first seven games after the break, the Tigers lost four games in a row during a six-game road trip to Kansas City and Minnesota. Detroit has won three games in a row including a 6-2 victory against the Orioles last night. The Tigers' improvement can be traced back to last month when they started consistently beating good teams when playing at home at Comerica Park. Detroit swept the St. Louis Cardinals in a two-game series on June 22nd and 23rd. They then split a four-game series at home against the Houston Astros before winning two of three against the Chicago White Sox at Comerica before the All-Star break. The Tigers have won all eight of their games at home since. They are on fourteen of seventeen and nineteen of twenty-six home winning streaks. They have won six in a row when favored at home as they are tonight. They have won eleven of their last twelve games at home when the oddsmakers install the over/under in the 9 to 10.5 range. They have a nice opportunity to continue their winning streak against Baltimore’s Matt Harvey. The right-hander has a 5-10 record with a 6.65 era and a 1.58 whip in 20 starts. With two straight scoreless outings, Harvey was a possible trade target. Yet with the trade deadline passed this afternoon, we are comfortable endorsing this play with the Dark Knight still scheduled to pitch. His last two outings were against sub-500 teams Washington and Kansas City. He only struck out six batters in those 12 innings. This recent success seems to be more a result of smoke and mirrors than a breakthrough for the 32-year-old. He is striking out only 16.4% of the batters he faces yet his ground ball rate is just 43.0%. His era and whip in his ten starts on the road are 6.56 and 1.59. Harvey’s teams have lost twenty-eight of their last forty-three games (with four straight losses) when he is pitching after not allowing more than two earned runs in two straight games. He faces a hot-hitting Tigers team that is scoring 6.6 runs per game in their last seven games with a .275 batting average and a .467 slugging percentage. Baltimore has only won thirteen of their last fifty-one games after a loss. They have won just twice in their last thirteen games on the road against teams with a losing record. With a 35-65 record this season, the Orioles are going nowhere this season. They face one of the promising young hurlers in the Tigers’ rotation in Tarik Skubal. The left-hander has a 6-9 record with a 4.42 era and a 1.31 whip in 18 starts (20 appearances). His era and whip at home are 3.50 and 1.25 in 12 games. He is striking out 26.3% of the batter he faces, and he has a swinging strike rate of 11.9%. Skubal allowed five runs in five innings in his last start at Kansas City on Sunday. He will likely be motivated to pitch better back at home where he last pitched ten days ago when he allowed only one run in six innings of work. Baltimore is averaging only 4.0 runs per game on the road with a .226 batting average and a .364 slugging percentage. The Orioles have won six times in their last twenty-seven games on the road against left-handed starting pitchers. Take Detroit. Good luck - Team Del Genio.

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