PGA Wells Fargo Championship Top Overlay Bet
- Handicapper
- Hollywood Sports
- League
- CUSTOM
- Competition
- PGA Wells Fargo Championship
- Time
- 05/06/2021 06:50 AM
- Bet Type
- Point Spread
- Pick
-
Patrick Reed versus Rory McILroy Round One head-to-head prop +0.5 (-125)
(BetOnline)
- Outcome
- Win
- Analysis
- The Wells Fargo Championship takes place at the Quail Hollow Club in Charlotte, North Carolina. This is a long course consisting of 7554 yards with a par of 71. The greens consist of Bermuda grass. The last two champions have finished in the top two in Shots-Gained: Putting and Putting Average — so those are metrics I will be privileging this week. I will also be valuing Shots Gained: Off-the-Tee, Shots-Gained: Approach the Green, and Proximity from 200 yards or more away from the tee.
Our Top Overlay Bet on the golfer who offers the most value relative to the odds is on Patrick Reed who is listed at +2800 at BetOnline. Reed missed the cut last week at the Valspar Championship at Copperhead — but that should give him a chip on his shoulder this week while giving him an extra two days off from missing the weekend in Tampa. Reed was tied for eighth for his previous event at the Masters — and he won the Farmers Insurance Open in January. Reed’s short game makes him a threat on this course. He is third on the tour in Shots-Gained: Putting. He is also 15th in Shots-Gained: Total. He has a great course history at Quail Hollow — he has made the cut in all seven of his appearances here with a co-second place in the PGA Championship in 2017 and an eighth place at the Wells Fargo Championship event in 2018. Reed is linked with Rory McIlroy for Round One head-to-head propositions. McIlroy is out of form in a funk that has prevented him from breaking 74 in his last five-stroke play rounds. He has a great course history here as a two-time champion =— and he is the all-time money winner here. But McIlroy has not won on the tour since 2019. Maybe McIlroy finds his game this week — but it is tough to trust his touch right now. He ranks 108th on the tour for 2020-21 in Shots-Gained: Putting. He is also just 74th in Shots-Gained: Approach-the-Green. McIlroy has not played since missing the cut at the Masters last month so he may be a bit rusty for this opening round back in a tournament setting. Reed is priced below my -150 price threshold in getting a +0.5 stroke for Round One versus McIroy — so let’s grab the value there. Take Reed (7135) plus +0.5 strokes versus McIlroy (7136) in Round One head-to-head propositions. Best of luck for us — Frank.
