Matt Fargo - Western Michigan vs Northern Illinois

Fargo's CFB Tuesday Enforcer (6-3 Run)

Handicapper
Matt Fargo
League
NCAAF
Competition
Western Michigan vs Northern Illinois
Release Date
11/18/2025 07:21 AM
Event Date
11/18/2025 07:00 PM
Bet Type
Point Spread
Pick
Western Michigan -6.5 (-105) (BetMGM)
Outcome
Win
Analysis
This is a play on the WESTERN MICHIGAN BRONCOS for our CFB Tuesday Enforcer. Western Michigan went into last week one of four teams at 4-1 with its lone loss against Miami Ohio and defeated Ohio to have the inside track at the MAC Championship. The Broncos are the only 5-1 team with five teams sitting at 4-2 so it is Western Michigan as the only team that controls its own destiny. The Broncos have an extra day of rest in this matchup which may not seem too big but when it comes to the travel team having that extra time, it is significant. The Broncos have the defensive edge as they are No. 12 in EPA and No. 34 in Success Rate while allowing just 4.9 yppl and faces the second worst offense in the MAC, ahead of only 0-10 Massachusetts. The Broncos are 5-0 ATS in their last five games against teams averaging 17 or fewer ppg. Northern Illinois had its bowl game aspirations die with a 42-3 loss against Toledo two weeks ago to fall to 2-7 and while the Huskies rebounded with a win, it was against the Minutemen who have been blown out in all but one FBS game. Northern Illinois is No. 129 in Offensive EPA and No. 135 in Success Rate while their 4.6 yppl is tied for No. 122. The Huskies are 0-5 ATS in their last five games after allowing 14 points or fewer and 2-13 ATS in their last 15 games after coming off a cover win. 10* (105) Western Michigan Broncos

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