TDG’s NBA GAME OF THE YEAR
- Handicapper
- Team Del Genio
- League
- NBA
- Competition
- Indiana Pacers vs Oklahoma City Thunder
- Release Date
- 06/06/2025 11:23 PM
- Event Date
- 06/08/2025 08:06 PM
- Bet Type
- Point Spread
- Pick
-
Oklahoma City Thunder -10.5 (-115)
(BetMGM)
- Outcome
- Win
- Analysis
- Our 25* NBA Game of the Year is on Oklahoma City minus the points versus Indiana on Sunday at 8:05 pm et.
The Oklahoma City Thunder seemed to be in complete control in Game 1 when they took a 94-79 lead with just 9:42 minutes left to play. Yet their high-risk/high-reward style of play which features plenty of 3-point attempts and pressure defense attempting to force turnovers leads to high variance outcomes from game-to-game and even quarter-to-quarter. The Thunder only scored 16 points the rest of the way which opened the door for the Pacers to get back into the game. Indiana pulled within three points with under a minute to go, and after Shai Gilgeous-Alexander missed a 14-footer with 11 seconds left in the game (and plenty of time on the shot clock left), Aaron Nesmith got the rebound, the ball went into Tyrese Haliburton’s hands who once again nailed a clutch buzzer-beater in the postseason, this time a 21-foot winner as time expired. If there is a silver lining for Oklahoma City, it is that they have already encountered a situation very similar to this. They were up double-digits in the fourth quarter at home against Denver in Game 1 of that series before the Nuggets rallied late. After Chet Holmgren missed two free throws with ten seconds left in the game, Aaron Gordon nailed a 3-pointer with under three seconds left in the game to steal a 121-119 upset victory as a 10.5-point underdog. The Thunder responded in Game 2 of that series with a statement 149-106 victory as a 10.5-point favorite, which is right around what the oddsmakers installed them as the favorite for this Game 2 on Sunday. The oddsmakers have installed Oklahoma City as the point spread favorite in all 16 of their playoff games this year. All five of their losses were upsets. Yet the Thunder have won all four of their previous playoff games following a loss. Never were they facing more pressure than in Game 7 of the series with Denver which was made possible because of the Nuggets’ 119-107 upset win as a 5.5-point home underdog in Game 6 of that Western Conference semifinals series. Oklahoma City responded with a 125-93 victory as an 8.5-point favorite in Game 7. In their two other games after getting upset in the postseason, the Thunder won the game yet did not cover the point spread. But both of those games were on the road. Oklahoma City’s net point differential in their two victories at home following an upset loss is +37.5 points per game. After their Game 1 loss, the Thunder have an 8-2 record at home with a +22.0 net point differential. Seven of those eight victories were by 15 or more points. Oklahoma City should get better games from starters Jalen Williams, Cason Wallace, and Holmgren after the trio combined for a 29.7% field goal percentage (11-37) with none of those three players making more than 33% of their shots. The Thunder have covered the point spread in ten of their last eleven games at home when playing with revenge from a loss at home to their current opponent. They have covered the point spread in thirty-four of their forty-nine games at home this year. They have covered in all three of their previous Game 2s in the postseason this year with a net point differential of +25.7 points per game. All three of those victories were by 15 or more points.
Eight of Indiana’s thirteen wins in the playoffs this year have been upset victories when the oddsmakers were giving them the points. Yet the Pacers have only covered the point spread four times in their twenty games this year when they come off a win by six points or less. They got a surprising effort from Obi Toppin who made five of his eight shots from 3-point land and scored 17 points. He is a 35.7% shooter from 3-point range. Indiana’s improbable victory on Thursday continued a fascinating trend in the NBA finals. In the last eleven NBA Finals, those 61 game-winners have a 56-3-4 against the spread mark. We are wary that those trends will continue, especially with how dangerous this Pacers team has been this year. Yet it makes us comfortable to lay the double-digit points in what should be a Thunder victory in Game 2. Play Oklahoma City minus the points.
Good luck - Team Del Genio.
