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Big Al's Daily Angle: NBA and NHL Previews and Odds - 03/18/2024

by Big Al Staff

Monday, Mar 18, 2024

The Monday sports card features NBA and NHL action.The National Basketball Association has eight games on its docket. The Indiana Pacers host the Cleveland Cavaliers at 7:10 p.m. ET. The Pacers won for the third time in their last four games with a 1201-100 victory as an 8-point favorite on Saturday. The Cavaliers lost for the third time in their last four games in a 117-103 upset loss at Houston as a 4.5-favorite on Saturday. Indiana is a 7.5-point favorite, with the total set at 223.5 (all odds from DraftKings).Two NBA games tip off at 7:40 p.m. ET. The Boston Celtics play at home against the Detroit Pistons. The Celtics are on a five-game winning streak after a 130-104 victory at Washington as a 14.5-point favorite on Sunday. The Pistons are on a two-game losing streak after their 104-101 loss at home to Miami on Sunday. Boston is a 16-point favorite with an over/under of 226.The Philadelphia 76ers are at home against the Miami Heat on ESPN. The 76ers ended a two-game losing streak with a 109-98 victory as a 10-point favorite on Saturday. The Heat are on a two-game winning streak after their victory against the Pistons yesterday. Philadelphia is a 2-point favorite with a total of 210. The Chicago Bulls host the Portland Trail Blazers at 8:10 p.m. ET. The Bulls won for the second time in their last three games after a 127-98 victory as a 9.5-point favorite on Friday. The Trail Blazers have lost two games in a row after a 126-117 loss at New Orleans as a 13-point underdog on Friday. Chicago is a 7.5-point favorite with an over/under of 213.5. The Minnesota Timberwolves travel to Utah to play the Jazz at 9:10 p.m. ET. The Timberwolves have won two games in a row after a 119-100 victory at Utah as an 8-point road favorite on Saturday. The Jazz have lost four of their last five games. Minnesota is an 8-point road favorite with a total of 222. Two NBA games start at 10:10 p.m. ET. The Golden State Warriors play at home against the New York Knicks on ESPN. The Warriors won for the second time in their last three games in a 128-121 upset victory as a 12-point underdog in Los Angeles against the Lakers on Saturday. The Knicks are on a three-game winning streak after their 98-91 victory at Sacramento as a 4-point underdog on Saturday. Golden State is a 4.5-point favorite with an over/under of 212.5. The Sacramento Kings are at home against the Memphis Grizzlies. The Kings had won two games in a row before their 98-91 loss against the Knicks on Saturday. The Grizzlies lost for the fourth time in their last five games after their 118-112 loss against Orlando as an 11-point underdog on Saturday. Sacramento is a 9.5-point favorite with a total of 223.5.The Los Angeles Lakers host the Atlanta Hawks at 10:40 p.m. ET. The Lakers are on a two-game losing streak after their loss to the Warriors on Saturday. The Hawks ended a three-game losing streak with a 110-93 upset victory in Los Angeles against the Clippers as a 9.5-point underdog on Sunday. Los Angeles is an 8.5-point favorite with an over/under of 227.The National Hockey League has two games on its slate. The Calgary Flames play at home against the Washington Capitals at 8:37 p.m. ET. The Flames are on a two-game winning streak after their 5-2 victory against Montreal on Saturday. The Capitals won for the fourth time in their last six games in a 2-1 victory at Vancouver on Saturday. Calgary is a -135 money-line favorite with a total of 6. The Seattle Kraken are at home against the Buffalo Sabres at 10:07 p.m. ET. The Kraken are on a four-game losing streak after their 4-1 loss at Buffalo on Saturday. The Sabres were on a three-game winning streak before their 4-1 loss at Detroit on Saturday. Seattle is a -118 money-line favorite with an over/under of 5.5.

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NBA System of the Week

by Al McMordie

Sunday, Mar 17, 2024

When handicapping the NBA, I often will use revenge as a factor.  But I generally need a team to have done more than just lose to its opponent in the season's prior meeting.  Some of the other things I will look at would be the site of the previous meeting, the point spread in the previous meeting, the win percentage differential between the teams, the magnitude of the loss, and how many points our revenge-minded team gave up to its opponent.Certainly, scoring has been up in the NBA the last few years.  And one of my NBA regular season systems has been getting a lot of plays as a result.  That system goes against favorites (or PK'em teams) that scored 145 (or more) points in winning the season's previous meeting.  After giving up a lot of points to an opponent, the revenge-minded team no doubt will want to play harder defense the next time around.  And that's generally all we need to get the edge (and the cover) in the current game.  Since 1990, this system has clocked in with a 38-16 ATS record (70.3%), including 9-1 ATS if our revenge-minded team owned a winning record.  This system will have at least 3 more plays this season (including one tonight):March 17:  Atlanta Hawks + over Los Angeles ClippersMarch 25:  Indiana Pacers + over Los Angeles ClippersApril 4:  Atlanta Hawks + over Dallas MavericksThe Hawks +9.5 are a play, tonight, over the Clippers as a result of their 149-144 loss at home to the Clippers, on February 5.  And Indiana also gave up a lot of points to the Clippers in its prior meeting, as it lost 151-127 at home, on December 18.  And, finally, on April 4, the Hawks will look to avenge a 148-143 upset home loss to the Mavericks back on January 26.  Of note is the fact that the Pacers do own a winning record, so they will fall into the 9-1 ATS subset in their game on March 25 vs. the Clippers.Good luck, as always...Al McMordie

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Big Al's Daily Angle: NBA, NHL, NCAAB and EPL Previews and Odds - 03/17/2024

by Big Al Staff

Sunday, Mar 17, 2024

The Sunday sports card features NBA, NHL, NCAAB, and EPL action.The National Basketball Association has seven games on its docket. The Milwaukee Bucks host the Phoenix Suns on ABC at 1:10 p.m. ET as a 2-point favorite, with the total set at 228 (all odds from DraftKings unless indicated otherwise). The Miami Heat travel to Detroit to play the Pistons at 3:10 p.m. ET as a 6.5-point road favorite with an over/under of 215. The Denver Nuggets play in Dallas against the Mavericks on ABC at 3:40 p.m. ET as a 3-point road favorite with a total of 225.5. Two NBA games tip off at 6:10 p.m. ET. The Orlando Magic play at home against the Toronto Raptors as a 12.5-point favorite with an over/under of 216.5. The Boston Celtics are in Washington to play the Wizards as a 10.5-point road favorite with a total of 232.5. The San Antonio Spurs are at home against the Brooklyn Nets at 7:10 p.m. ET as a 1-point favorite with an over/under of 220. The Los Angeles Clippers host the Atlanta Hawks at 9:40 p.m. ET as a 10-point favorite with a total of 226. The National Hockey League has seven games on its slate. The New York Rangers play at home against the New York Islanders on TNT at 1:07 p.m. ET as a -170 money-line favorite with an over/under of 5.5. The Vegas Golden Knights are at home against the New Jersey Devils on TNT at 3:37 p.m. ET as a -166 money-line favorite with a total of 6.5. Four NHL games drop the puck at 6:07 p.m. ET. The Chicago Blackhawks host the San Jose Sharks as a -162 money-line favorite with an over/under of 6. The Winnipeg Jets visit Columbus to play the Blue Jackets as a -250 money-line road favorite with a total of 6. The Carolina Hurricanes play in Ottawa against the Senators as a -185 money-line road favorite with an over/under of 6.5. The Pittsburgh Penguins play at home against the Detroit Red Wings as a -135 money-line favorite with a total of 6.5. The St. Louis Blues are at home against the Anaheim Ducks at 7:07 p.m. ET as a -205 money-line favorite with an over/under of 6. The college basketball schedule has five conference tournament championship games on national television. Yale battles Brown on ESPN2 at noon ET in the Ivy League tournament as a 7.5-point favorite with a total of 134.5. Two NCAAB games tip off at 1 p.m. ET. Auburn faces Florida on ESPN in the SEC tournament as a 7.5-point favorite with an over/under of 155.5. Virginia Commonwealth plays Duquesne on CBS in the Atlantic 10 tournament as a 2-point favorite with a total of 126.5. UAB challenges Temple at 3:15 p.m. ET on ESPN in the American Athletic Conference tournament as a 6-point favorite with an over/under of 138. Illinois goes against Wisconsin on CBS at 3:30 p.m. ET in the Big Ten tournament as a 3-point favorite with a total of 149. Matchweek 29 in the English Premier League concludes with one match. Aston Villa are at West Ham United on the USA Network at 10 a.m. ET in a pick ‘em match at BetMGM with an over/under of 3.

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Big Al's Daily Angle: NBA, NHL, NCAAB and EPL Previews and Odds - 03/16/2024

by Big Al Staff

Saturday, Mar 16, 2024

The Saturday sports card features NBA, NHL, NCAAB, and EPL action.The National Basketball Association has nine games on its docket. The Cleveland Cavaliers travel to Houston to play the Rockets at 5:10 p.m. ET as a 5.5-point road favorite, with the total set at 215.5 (all odds from DraftKings unless indicated otherwise). Three more NBA games tip off at 7:10 p.m. ET. The Indiana Pacers host the Brooklyn Nets as a 9-point favorite with an over/under of 228.5. The Philadelphia 76ers play at home against the Charlotte Hornets as a 10.5-point favorite with a total of 208. The New Orleans Pelicans are home against the Portland Trail Blazers as a 13.5-point favorite with an over/under of 212.5. Two NBA games start at 8:10 p.m. ET. The Chicago Bulls host the Washington Wizards as a 10.5-point favorite with a total of 226.5. Oklahoma City plays at Memphis against the Grizzlies as a 9-point road favorite with an over/under of 219.5. The Los Angeles Lakers play at home against the Golden State Warriors on ABC as a 3.5-point favorite with a total of 237. The Minnesota Timberwolves are in Utah to play the Jazz as an 8-point road favorite with an over/under of 224. The Sacramento Kings are at home against the New York Knicks at 10:10 p.m. ET as a 3-point favorite with a total of 220. The National Hockey League has 14 games on its slate. Two NHL games drop the puck at 12:37 p.m. ET. The Buffalo Sabres visit Detroit to play the Red Wings, with both teams priced at -110 with an over/under of 6.5. The New York Islanders host the Ottawa Senators as a -166 money-line favorite with a total of 6.5. The New York Rangers play in Pittsburgh against the Penguins on ABC at 3:07 p.m. ET as a -142 money-line road favorite with an over/under of 6. The New Jersey Devils are in Arizona to play the Coyotes at 5:07 p.m. ET as a -162 money-line road favorite with a total of 6.5. The Florida Panthers play at home against the Tampa Bay Lightning at 6:07 p.m. ET as a -170 money-line favorite with an over/under of 6. Four NHL games begin at 7:07 p.m. ET. The Calgary Flames are at home against the Montreal Canadiens as a -175 money-line favorite with a total of 6. The Boston Bruins host the Philadelphia Flyers as a -205 money-line favorite with an over/under of 5.5. The Columbus Blue Jackets play at home against the San Jose Sharks as a -205 money-line favorite with a total of 6.5. The Carolina Hurricanes travel to Toronto to play the Maple Leafs, with both teams priced at -110 with an over/under of 6. Two NHL games start at 8:07 p.m. ET. The Dallas Stars are at home against the Los Angeles Kings as a -155 money-line favorite with a total of 6. The Minnesota Wild play in St. Louis against the Blues as a -130 money-line road favorite with an over/under 6.5. Three more games conclude the NHL card at 10:07 p.m. ET. The Nashville Predators are in Seattle to play the Kraken as a -122 money-line road favorite with a total of 5.5. The Vancouver Canucks host the Washington Capitals as a -230 money-line favorite with an over/under of 6. The Edmonton Oilers play at home against the Colorado Avalanche as a -130 money-line favorite with a total of 6.5.The college basketball schedule has 16 conference tournament games on major national television. Vermont hosts UMass-Lowell on ESPN2 at 11 a.m. ET as a 7.5-point favorite with an over/under of 135. Three NCAAB games on major national television tip-off at 1 p.m. ET. Purdue plays Wisconsin on CBS as a 6-point favorite with a total of 143. Auburn battles Mississippi State on ESPN as a 7.5-point favorite with an over/under of 142.5. Howard University goes against Delaware State on ESPN2 as a 2.5-point favorite with a total of 140. Two NCAAB games on major national television start at 3 p.m. ET. Illinois faces Nebraska on CBS as a 4.5-point favorite with an over/under of 154. South Florida battles UAB on ESPN2 as a 3-point favorite with a total of 145.5. Florida goes against Texas A&M on ESPN as a 2.5-point favorite at BetMGM with an over/under of 151. Florida Atlantic plays against Temple on ESPN2 at 5 p.m. ET as a 12-point favorite with a total of 141.5. Two NCAAB games on major national television tip-off at 6 p.m. ET. Houston challenges Iowa State on ESPN as a 5.5-point favorite with an over/under of 122.5. San Diego State plays New Mexico on CBS as a 1.5-point favorite with a total of 143.5. Connecticut is against Marquette on Fox at 6:30 p.m. ET as an 8.5-point favorite with an over/under of 142.5. Akron goes against Kent State on ESPN2 at 7:30 p.m. ET as a 4.5-point favorite with a total of 132.5. North Carolina faces North Carolina State on ESPN at 8:30 p.m. ET as a 9.5-point favorite with an over/under of 147.Colorado plays Oregon on Fox at 9 p.m. ET as a 4-point favorite with a total of 147. UC-Davis battles Long Beach State on ESPN2 at 9:30 p.m. ET as a 1-point favorite with an over/under of 146. Grand Canyon faces UT-Arlington on ESPN2 at 11:30 p.m. ET as a 5.5-point favorite with a total of 147. Matchweek 29 in the English Premier League begins with three matches. Two matches begin at 11 a.m. ET. Brentford visits Burnley as a -0.5 goal-line road favorite with an over/under of 2.5. Nottingham Forest plays at Luton Town on the USA Network as a pick ‘em with a total of 2.5. Tottenham is at Fulham at 1:30 p.m. ET as a -0.5 goal-line road favorite with an over/under of 3. 

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Big Al's Daily Angle: NBA, NHL and NCAAB Previews and Odds - 03/15/2024

by Big Al Staff

Friday, Mar 15, 2024

The Friday sports card features NBA, NHL, and NCAAB action.The National Basketball Association has six games on its docket. Two NBA games tip off at 7:10 p.m. ET. The Phoenix Suns travel to Charlotte to play the Hornets as a 9-point road favorite, with the total set at 217 (all odds from DraftKings). The Miami Heat play in Detroit against the Pistons as a 7.5-point favorite with an over/under of 213.5. The Orlando Magic are in Toronto to play the Raptors at 7:40 p.m. ET as a 7.5-point road favorite with a total of 217. The New Orleans Pelicans host the Los Angeles Clippers at 8:10 p.m. ET as a 6-point favorite with an over/under of 217. The Denver Nuggets visit San Antonio to play the Spurs at 8:40 p.m. ET as a 9.5-point road favorite with a total of 222. The Atlanta Hawks play in Utah against the Jazz at 9:40 p.m. ET as a 2.5-point road favorite with an over/under of 224. The National Hockey League has two games on its slate. The Winnipeg Jets host the Anaheim Ducks at 8:07 p.m. ET as a -380 money-line favorite with a total of 5.5. The Los Angeles Kings are in Chicago to play the Bulls at 8:37 p.m. ET as a -258 money-line road favorite with an over/under of 5.5. The college basketball schedule has 17 conference tournament games on national television. UTEP plays Sam Houston on the CBS Sports Network at 12:30 p.m. ET. Two college basketball conference tournament games on national television tip off at 1 p.m. ET. Tennessee battles Mississippi State on ESPN as a 9.5-point favorite with a total of 141. South Florida goes against East Carolina on ESPN2 as a 7-point favorite with an over/under of 136.5. Two more NCAAB conference tournament games on national television begin at 3 p.m. ET. Middle Tennessee faces Western Kentucky on the CBS Sports Network. UAB challenges Wichita State on ESPN2 as a 5-point favorite with a total of 146.5. Auburn battles South Carolina on ESPN at 3:30 p.m. ET as a 7.5-point favorite with an over/under of 142. Kent State plays Bowling Green on the CBS Sports Network at 5 p.m. ET as a 1.5-point road favorite with a total of 141. Connecticut goes against St. John’s on Fox at 5:30 p.m. ET as a 9.5-point favorite with an over/under of 146.5. Saint Peter’s faces Quinnipiac on ESPN News at 6:30 p.m. ET. North Texas battles Florida Atlantic on ESPNU at 7 p.m. ET. Ohio challenges Akron on the CBS Sports Network at 7:30 p.m. ET. Providence plays Marquette on FS1 at 8 p.m. ET. Two nationally-televised college basketball conference tournament games start at 9 p.m. ET. Marist faces Fairfield on ESPN News. Temple battles Charlotte on ESPNU. Colorado goes against Washington State on FS1 at 10:30 p.m. ET. Two nationally televised conference tournament games complete the college basketball card at 11:30 p.m. ET. Hawaii plays UC-Davis on ESPN2. UT-Arlington challenges Tarleton State on ESPNU.

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Big Al's Daily Angle: NBA, NHL, NCAAB Previews and Odds - 03/14/2024

by Big Al Staff

Thursday, Mar 14, 2024

The Thursday sports card features NBA, NHL, and NCAA action.The National Basketball Association has six games on its docket. The Boston Celtics host the Phoenix Suns on TNT at 7:30 p.m. ET as a 5.5-point favorite with the total set last 229 (all odds from DraftKings). Three more NBA games tip off at 8:10 p.m. ET. The Los Angeles Clippers travel to Chicago to play the Bulls as a 6.5-point road favorite with an over/under of 215.5. The Houston Rockets play at home against the Washington Wizards as an 8.5-point favorite with a total of 226.5. The Milwaukee Bucks are at home against the Philadelphia 76ers as an 8.5-point favorite with an over/under of 222. The Oklahoma City Thunder host the Dallas Mavericks on TNT at 10:00 PM ET as a 9.5-point favorite with a total of 237. The New York Knicks play in Portland against the Trail Blazers at 10:10 p.m. ET as a 10.5-point road favorite with an over/under of 207.5. The National Hockey League has 12 games on its slate. Seven NHL games drop the puck at 7:07 p.m. ET. The New York Islanders are in Buffalo to play the Sabres as a -115 money-line road favorite with a total of 6. The Carolina Hurricanes play at home against the Florida Panthers as a -122 money-line favorite with an over/under of 6. The Ottawa Senators visit Columbus to play the Blue Jackets as a -125 money-line road favorite with a total of 6.5. The Detroit Red Wings are home against the Arizona Coyotes as a -170 money-line favorite with an over/under of 6.5. The Boston Bruins play in Montreal Canadiens as a -230 money-line road favorite with a total of 6. The Pittsburgh Penguins host the San Jose Sharks as a -278 money-line favorite with an over/under of 6. The Tampa Bay Lightning play at home against the New York Rangers as a -112 money-line favorite with a total of 6.  The Toronto Maple Leafs are in Philadelphia to play the Flyers at 7:37 p.m. ET as a -135 money-line road favorite with an over/under of 6. Two more NHL games start at 8:07 p.m. ET. The Dallas Stars are at home against the New Jersey Devils as a -180 money-line favorite with a total of 6.5. The Minnesota Wild host the Anaheim Ducks as a -278 money-line favorite with an over/under of 6.5. The Vegas Golden Knights visit Calgary to play the Flames at 9:07 p.m. ET as a -148 money-line road favorite with a total of 6.5. The Seattle Kraken play at home against the Washington Capitals at 10:07 p.m. ET as a -162 money-line favorite with an over/under of 6. The college basketball schedule has eight games on major national television. North Carolina battles Florida State on ESPN at noon ET as an 11-point favorite with a total of 154.5. BYU plays Texas Tech on ESPN2 at 12:30 p.m. ET as a 2-point favorite with an over/under of 153. Wake Forest faces Pittsburgh on ESPN2 at 2:30 p.m. ET as a 1.5-point favorite with a total of 145. Houston goes against TCU on ESPN at 3 p.m. ET as a 10-point favorite with an over/under of 137.5. Two more NCAAB games are on major national television at 7 p.m. ET. Kansas State challenges Iowa State on ESPN2. Duke battles North Carolina State on ESPN as a 10.5-point favorite with a total of 149.5. Two more NCAAB games on major national television begin at 9:30 p.m. ET. Cincinnati faces Baylor on ESPN2. Boston College goes against Virginia on ESPN. 

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Betting the Underdogs in March Madness

by Wayne Root

Wednesday, Mar 13, 2024

Ask yourself this question: Should you blindly bet all the underdogs in March Madness?The 2023 NCAA Tournament had a weird betting theme to it. We visualize upsets when looking at the bracket, and then we take them to the betting window.It was an exciting tournament but an unorthodox one to be sure. For the first time in NCAA Tournament history, there were no #1 seeds in the Elite 8 as the March Madness underdogs stole the show. And in a huge way!TRENDS?I see these types of trends a lot on sports betting social media that isn't Twitter — Now X, Instagram, TikTok, especially. "If you bet X in X event last year, you'd be up X units." But they usually fail to tell the whole story, or purposely narrow the sample size to sound interesting and profitable.So is betting underdogs to win outright in March Madness actually a good idea?Betting No. 15 and No. 16 seeds.Now, let’s look at the frequency of a No. 16 or No. 15 team upsetting a No. 1 or No. 2 seed.Since 1985, No. 1 seeds are 150-2 against No. 16 seeds, but the two upsets have both happened in the last six seasons. Maybe the transfer portal will make it even more advantageous this season. Virginia was upset by UMBC in 2018 – the first time a No. 16 seed beat a No. 1 seed in the men’s NCAA Tournament. Purdue was knocked off by Fairleigh Dickinson in 2023.Betting No. 15 SeedsNo. 15 seeds beating No. 2 seeds is more common, especially recently. Eleven No. 15 seeds have beaten No. 2 seeds since 1985, with seven of those wins coming since 2012. I’m definitely going to bet some higher seeds early in the tournament. By the time the “Elite Eight” get here, things will have settled down.  Breaking it down, a No. 15 seed has upset a No. 2 seed just 11 times in 152 games (7.2%). In the 27 tournaments from 1985 to 2011, No. 15 seeds won only four times in 108 games (3.7%).This is where it gets interesting. Since then, No. 15 seeds have seven wins in 44 games over the last 11 tournaments – a winning percentage of 15.9%. That’s a drastic increase. Being that the money line is so large, there will be opportunities with a No. 15 seed to pay large dividends. Betting the Money LineIf a bettor placed a $100 moneyline bet on every underdog in the NCAA Tournament since 2017, they’d be up $1,132. That’s making money line bets only. However, if taking no points is profitable, then taking the points is where one should initially be looking to bet.  Let’s look at the point spread bets.  There’s a similar trend for the spread as well. Bettors who wagered $100 on every underdog spread during that span would be up $723. It’s profitable bot that’s not even making minimum wage. Spread bets are safer and more likely to hit because the underdog doesn’t need to win the game to cover. However, spreads also come with worse odds and lower potential payouts, so there’s a trade-off there. Have you seen favorite(s) with a -250 money line, the payback is +200. That money goes in the casinos fund to add another floor. Regardless, both bet types have been profitable lately on March Madness underdogs. It’s profitable because of transfers and NIL’s. Imagine a high school star player getting recruited to Duke and sitting on the bench his entire college career. He knows he’ll never play so he transfers to another college where he’ll be a starter and has the potential to be an instant hit.  Betting Underdogs Accordingly, underdogs have become more viable bets based on recent trends. No. 15 and No. 16 seeds are still far more likely to lose than win, but upsets are becoming more common as stated above. Time will tell if those trends continue, as tournaments vary every year. In the meantime, wagering a small amount of money on a large underdog appears to be a reasonable betting strategy that could prove profitable this March. We will look further into investing in the underdog as the seeding is completed. Betting it all on “That One Dog” So if you were firing +250 dogs throughout the tourney — you know, the ones we actually thought could win — you probably lost your shirt. And if you want to blindly bet every team on the moneyline, you better be comfortable betting every team. If you missed on Saint Peters — which I don't think anyone advocated for — you did lose your shirt.In 2022, Saint Peters was +19.5 units thanks to its epic Elite Eight run with included wins at +1100, +650 and +300. The rest of the dogs were -13.5 units. It’s all or nothing. Is there a specific round where dogs do well? The only time it's really paid off for bettors is in the Elite Eight, which is too small a sample size to read much into. In the first two rounds and Final Four, it's been a downright disaster.One more example from 2023 March Madness. A bettor’s plan was simple: bet $100 on the underdog in every March Madness game. Despite going 0-for-3 in the final 3 games of the tournament, he still came out up $1,900 on his bets. That’s an exceptional month. Across all 67 games, he had 24 wins and 43 losses. Betting $100 on the money line on every underdog, he walked away up comfortably after the final whistle was blown.That is two years in a row now he’s taken this strategy and both years have been profitable. Finally, is betting underdogs profitable? It's not a simple yes or no answer on whether you should bet on an underdog or not. Underdogs will likely win less than 50 percent of the time, but that doesn't mean they won't be profitable. Recreational bettors often gravitate toward favorites, which can sometimes create value on the underdogs by inflating the lines. That’s where the sharp money and us seasoned professionals lay in wait. Professional bettors study the markets, check the odds, and crunch the numbers. Sportsbooks use incredibly complex software to check the stats, predict the most likely outcome, and set the odds accordingly. We, at VEGASWINNERS follow suit..Good Wagering 2024 March MadnessWayne Allyn Root

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Big Al's Daily Angle: NBA, NHL, EPL, NCAAB and UEFA Champions League Previews and Odds - 03/13/2024

by Big Al Staff

Wednesday, Mar 13, 2024

The Wednesday sports card features NBA, NHL, NCAAB, EPL, and UEFA Champions League action.The National Basketball Association has nine games on its docket. Two NBA games tip off at 7:10 p.m. ET. The Detroit Pistons host the Toronto Raptors as a 3-point favorite, with the total set at 233 (all odds from DraftKings unless indicated otherwise). The Orlando Magic play at home against the Brooklyn Nets as a 7-point favorite with an over/under of 205.5. Two more NBA games start at 7:40 p.m. ET. The Indiana Pacers are at home against the Chicago Bulls as a 4-point favorite with a total of 231. The Denver Nuggets travel to Miami to play the Heat on ESPN as a 5-point road favorite with an over/under of 215. Two NBA games begin at 8:10 p.m. ET. The Charlotte Hornets play in Memphis against the Grizzlies as a 1.5-point road favorite with a total of 205.5. The New Orleans Pelicans are at home against the Cleveland Cavaliers as a 6.5-point favorite with an over/under of 216.5. The Dallas Mavericks host the Golden State Warriors at 8:40 p.m. ET as a 7.5-point favorite with a total of 236. Two games conclude the NBA card at 10:10 p.m. ET. The Atlanta Hawks play in Portland against the Trail Blazers as a 3.5-point road favorite with an over/under of 219.5. The Los Angeles Lakers is at Sacramento on ESPN as a 1-point road favorite with a total of 239.The National Hockey League has four games on its slate. The Los Angeles Kings visit St. Louis to play the Blues on TNT as a -155 money-line road favorite with an over/under of 6. The Winnipeg Jets play at home against the Nashville Predators as a -155 money-line favorite with a total of 5.5. The Edmonton Oilers are at home against the Washington Capitals on TNT as a -278 money-line favorite with an over/under of 6.5. The Vancouver Canucks host the Colorado Avalanche at 10:37 p.m. ET as a -120 money-line favorite with a total of 6.5. The college basketball schedule has eight games on major national television. Virginia Tech faces Florida State on ESPN at noon ET as a 3.5-point favorite with an over/under of 153. BYU plays Central Florida on ESPN2 at 12:30 p.m. ET as a 5.5-point favorite with a total of 146. Wake Forest battles Notre Dame on ESPN at 2:30 p.m. ET as an 8-point favorite with an over/under of 137. McNeese State plays at home against Nicholls State on ESPN2 at 5 p.m. ET in the championship game of the Southland Conference tournament as a 15.5-point favorite with a total of 140. Syracuse challenges North Carolina State on ESPN2 at 7 p.m. ET as a 1.5-point favorite with an over/under of 153. Two more NCAAB games on major national television tip-off at 9:30 p.m. ET. Cincinnati battles Kansas on ESPN2 as a 2-point favorite with a total of 137. Montana goes against Montana State on ESPN2 at 11:30 p.m. ET in the championship game of the Big Sky tournament as a 5-point favorite with an over/under of 147.5. Matchweek 28 in the English Premier League concludes with one match. Bournemouth is at home against Luton Town at 3:30 p.m. ET as a -1 goal-line favorite with a total of 3 (all soccer odds from BetMGM). The knockout stage of the UEFA Champions League concludes with two second-leg matches in the Round of 16 at 4 PM ET. Borussia Dortmund hosts PSV Eindhoven as a -0.5 goal-line favorite with an over/under of 3. Inter Milan plays at Atletico Madrid in a pick ‘em match with a total of 2.5.

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NBA Sports Betting Tips

by Oskeim Sports

Tuesday, Mar 12, 2024

NBA Sports Betting NBA sports betting can be great fun, but be mindful when placing bets. Take your time researching each bet you place, focusing on one type of bet until you gain more familiarity with both the sport and its betting odds. Understanding how to read numbers is also critical since records alone don't reveal much. Instead, analysis must take place against opponents and the schedule in mind. 1. Look for Underdogs Backing underdogs in sports betting can be both thrilling and profitable, providing punters with a thrilling and lucrative experience. When overhyped teams gain public favor, bookmakers often shift odds in their favor, which creates value. Advanced analytics, alternative betting markets, and sensible staking strategies may further increase profit potential. Search out underdogs in games where teams have the advantage of playing at home court. Teams utilizing their regular practice facilities and having cheering fans supporting them tend to give their all, especially during big rivalry games. Conversely, tired teams from playing back-to-back sets often struggle and present betting value for underdogs. Pay attention to any movements in betting lines that might indicate sharp bettors recognizing value in one particular underdog. 2. Look for Mismatches One of the most popular methods for wagering on NBA games is over/under betting, or Over/Under. Oddsmakers take into account offensive and defensive production to produce a total, which bettors then bet whether or not the final score will go Over or Under that number. Be mindful that NBA game odds tend to be set closer to game time than NFL lines, offering bettors additional chances to shop around for better odds and exploit momentum shifts when live betting. This also gives bettors more time to identify momentum shifts with live betting strategies that recognize momentum fluctuations as momentum swings occur in real time. NBA schedules can be difficult, and teams may experience difficulties when facing back-to-back or three games in four nights. Therefore, bettors need to understand these scheduling peculiarities so they can take full advantage of them when placing NBA bets. 3. Look for Trends One of the key aspects of NBA sports betting to keep an eye out for are trends. Based on past results, these can provide invaluable insight into future outcomes - helping you decide which team and amount to bet. Many betting sites provide NBA trending pages to provide bettors with an in-depth review of upcoming games, both statistically and with regards to schedule quirks such as back-to-backs or playing on Christmas/MLK Day/road trips (or worse yet three-game road trips). Bettors tend to overlook these factors, yet they can make a significant impactful statement about a game's outcome. For example, one team might experience poor play on a second night of a back-to-back due to fatigue after long road trips or because their star player is on minutes restrictions. 4. Look for Injury Reports NBA players compete in an 82-game season, and injuries can have an enormous impact on a team's ability to win games or cover spreads. Therefore, attention must be given daily to injury reports. Each team must publish a list of injured or questionable players for every game, which may range from illness to minor injuries like sore legs. It's particularly important to stay abreast of what beat writers are reporting about player health when considering betting on teams you're interested in betting on. Line movement should also be taken into account when placing NBA bets, particularly live betting markets. Odds adjust real time, depending on factors like travel issues or player ejections - providing opportunities to place winning wagers. 5. Look for Value No other sport can rival NBA basketball's excitement of no-look passes, acrobatic dunks, and long distance threes; coupled with high odds propositions that could yield significant payouts, it is no wonder sports betting on NBA is so popular. When placing NBA wagers, it's essential to search for value. This involves carefully considering each game's odds and identifying bets with positive expected value - this provides a more objective approach to sports betting and can help prevent common mistakes such as chasing losses or overvaluing favorites. Injury reports and scheduling quirks should also be closely examined before placing a bet. If, for instance, recently traded players face their former team, they may feel extra motivated to seek payback against them. Furthermore, it pays to shop around to find the best odds before placing your wager.

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NCAA Tournament System of the Week

by Al McMordie

Tuesday, Mar 12, 2024

March Madness has officially arrived, and the power conferences have their tournaments this week.  Great situations always abound.  And one of the situations that I particularly like results from the schedule.  There are always rematches in the conference tournaments between teams that played at the end of the regular season, and then meet again in their very next game, at the start of the tourney.  I've always liked to focus on the teams that lost the meeting at season's end because their opponent might be a tad too overconfident after just winning a few days before.  But I don't just take any revenge-minded team.  Instead, I like to play on underdogs that were blown out by more than 10 points in that previous game.  Dating back 34 seasons, these teams have gone 55-38-2 ATS (59.1%).  Indeed, we had a play this afternoon (which I also released to my clients) on West Virginia +9.5 over Cincinnati.  Just three days ago, the Mountaineers were massacred by the Bearcats, 92-56, as an 11-point road underdog.  However, WVU almost turned the tables on Cincy when it mattered, and narrowly lost the tournament game (after leading by 16 in the second half), 90-85, as a huge underdog.There will be three more games from this system on Wednesday:  California +1.5 over Stanford, Fresno St. +5.5 over Wyoming, and Middle Tennessee St. +11 over Louisiana Tech.The Bears lost by 22 at Stanford, 80-58, last Thursday; the Bulldogs were wiped out by 39 points, 86-47, at home vs. Wyoming, this past Saturday; and the Blue Raiders were also routed on Saturday, 84-70, at Louisiana Tech.Look for these underdogs to bark loudly tomorrow.Good luck, as always...Al McMordie

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Big Al's Daily Angle: NBA, NHL, NCAAB and UEFA Champions League Previews and Odds - 03/12/2024

by Big Al Staff

Tuesday, Mar 12, 2024

The Tuesday sports card features NBA, NHL, NCAAB, and UEFA Champions League action.The National Basketball Association has seven games on its docket. The New York Knicks host the Philadelphia 76ers on TNT at 7:40 PM ET as a 6-point favorite, with the total set at 210.5 (all odds from DraftKings unless indicated otherwise). Two more NBA games tip off at 8:10 p.m. ET. The Oklahoma City Thunder play at home against the Indiana Pacers as a 7-point favorite with an over/under of 240. The Washington Wizards travel to Memphis to play the Grizzlies as a 2-point road favorite with a total of 218. The Houston Rockets play in San Antonio against the Spurs at 8:40 p.m. ET as a 3.5-point road favorite with an over/under of 223.5. The Boston Celtics are in Utah to play the Jazz at 9:10 p.m. ET as a 6.5-point road favorite with a total of 235. Two more games conclude the NBA card at 10:10 p.m. ET. The Los Angeles Clippers are at home against the Minnesota Timberwolves as a 7-point favorite with an over/under of 215. The Milwaukee Bucks visit Sacramento to play the Kings on TNT as a 2.5-point road favorite with a total of 238.The National Hockey League has ten games on its slate. Five NHL games drop the puck at 7:07 p.m. ET. The Buffalo Sabres host the Detroit Red Wings as a -120 money-line favorite with an over/under of 6.5. The Carolina Hurricanes play at home against the New York Rangers as a -162 money-line favorite with a total of 6. The Montreal Canadiens are at home against the Columbus Blue Jackets as a -120 money-line favorite with an over/under of 6.5. The Pittsburgh Penguins play in Ottawa against the Senators as a -118 money-line road favorite with a total of 6.5. The Philadelphia Flyers host the San Jose Sharks as a -298 money-line favorite with an over/under of 6. Two NHL games start at 8:07 p.m. ET. The Dallas Stars play at home against the Florida Panthers as a -115 money-line favorite with a total of 6. The Minnesota Wild are at home against the Arizona Coyotes as a -192 money-line favorite with an over/under of 6. The Anaheim Ducks are in Chicago to play the Blackhawks at 8:37 p.m.ET with both teams priced at -110 with a total of 6. The Colorado Avalanche travel to Calgary to play the Flames at 9:07 p.m. ET as a -175 money-line road favorite with an over/under of 6.5. The Vegas Golden Knights play in Seattle against the Kraken at 10:07 p.m. ET as a -142 money-line road favorite with a total of 6. The college basketball schedule has seven games on national television. Vermont battles New Hampshire on ESPN2 at 5 p.m. ET in the semifinals of the American East conference tournament as a 13.5-point favorite with an over/under of 138. McNeese State plays at home against Lamar on ESPNU at 6:30 p.m. ET, hosting the semifinals of the Southland Conference tournament as a 12.5-point favorite with a total of 144.5. The College of Charleston faces Stony Brook on the CBS Sports Network at 7 p.m. ET in the championship game of the Coastal Athletic Association tournament as a 7-point favorite with an over/under of 158.6. Montana State challenges Sacramento State on ESPNU at 8:30 p.m. ET in the semifinals of the Big Sky conference tournament as a 5-point favorite with a total of 135. Saint Mary’s goes against Gonzaga on ESPN at 9 p.m. ET in the championship game of the West Coast Conference tournament. South Dakota State plays Denver on the CBS Sports Network at 9:30 p.m. ET in the championship game of the Summit League tournament as an 8.5-point favorite with an over/under of 164. Montana battles Idaho State on ESPN2 at 11 p.m. ET as a 5.5-point favorite with a total of 142.5.The knockout stage of the UEFA Champions League continues with two second-leg matches in the Round of 16 at 4 PM ET. Arsenal plays against FC Porto as a -1.5-goal-line favorite with an over/under of 3 (all soccer odds from BetMGM). Barcelona is at home against Napoli as a -0.5 goal-line favorite with a total of 2.5. Both matches will be broadcast on Paramount+.

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Big Al's Daily Angle: NBA, NHL, NCAAB and EPL Previews and Odds - 03/11/2024

by Big Al Staff

Monday, Mar 11, 2024

The Monday sports card features NBA, NHL, NCAAB, and EPL action.The National Basketball Association has six games on its docket. The Detroit Pistons host the Charlotte Hornets at 7:10 p.m. ET as a 3.5-point favorite, with the total set at 216 (all odds from DraftKings unless indicated otherwise). The Phoenix Suns travel to Cleveland to play the Cavaliers at 7:40 p.m. ET as a 5.5-point road favorite with an over/under of 222.5. Two more NBA games tip off at 8:10 p.m. ET. The Dallas Mavericks play in Chicago against the Bulls as a 4.5-point road favorite with a total of 233. The Golden State Warriors are in San Antonio as a 4.5-point road favorite with an over/under of 230.5. The Denver Nuggets play at home against the Toronto Raptors at 9:10 p.m. ET as a 13.5-point favorite with a total of 226. The Boston Celtics visit Portland to play the Trail Blazers at 10:40 p.m. ET. The National Hockey League has four games on its slate. Two NHL games drop the puck at 7:07 p.m. ET. The Boston Bruins are at home against the St. Louis Blues as a -230 money-line favorite with an over/under of 6. The New York Rangers host the New Jersey Devils -155 money-line favorite with a total of 6.5. The Winnipeg Jets play at home against the Washington Capitals at 7:37 p.m. ET as a -205 money-line favorite with an over/under 5.5. The Los Angeles Kings are at home against the New York Islanders at 10:37 p.m. ET as a -162 money-line favorite with a total of 6. The college basketball schedule has eight games on national television. The College of Charleston battles Towson State on the CBS Sports Network at 6 p.m. ET in the semifinals of the Coastal Athletic Association tournament as a 5-point favorite with an over/under of 139.5. Three NCAAB games on national television tip off at 7 p.m. ET. Oakland plays Cleveland State on ESPNU in the Horizon League tournament as a 5-point favorite with a total of 145. James Madison goes against Arkansas State on ESPN in the championship game of the Sun Belt Conference tournament as a 6.5-point favorite with an over/under of 155. Samford challenges East Tennessee State on ESPN2  in the championship game of the Southern Conference tournament as a 10.5-point favorite at BetOnline with a total of 148.5. Hofstra plays Stony Brook on the CBS Sports Network at 8:30 p.m. ET in the semifinals of the Coastal Athletic Association tournament as a 5.5-point favorite with an over/under of 141. Two NCAAB games on national television begin at 9 p.m. ET. Saint Mary’s faces Santa Clara on ESPNU  in the semifinals of the West Coast Conference tournament as a 9.5-point favorite with a total of 134.5. Northern Kentucky battles Wisconsin-Milwaukee on ESPN2 in the Horizon League tournament as a 1-point favorite with an over/under of 151. Gonzaga goes against San Francisco on ESPN2 in the semifinals of the West Coast Conference tournament at 11:30 p.m. ET as an 8-point favorite with a total of 149. Matchweek 28 in the English Premier League continues with one match. Chelsea hosts Newcastle United on the USA Network at 4 p.m. ET as a -0.5 goal-line favorite at BetMGM with an over/under of 3.5.

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