Get the best handicapping articles and gambling advice throughout the football, basketball and baseball seasons from the world's top sports handicappers, as well as from Bovada (Bodog) Sportsbook and Casino.
NIT Tournament Breakdown
by Al McMordie - 03/29/2014
The 2014 NIT Tournament is down to four teams, who will compete at Madison Square Garden in New York City for the Title, beginning on Tuesday: Clemson, SMU, Minnesota and Florida State. It should be a great Final Four, as three of the four #1 seeds are represented, with only the #3-seeded Tigers crashing the #1-seed party.
Let's take a look at how this Tourney has shaken out from a pointspread perspective.
We've had 28 games thus far, and favorites have gone 14-10-3 against the closing number, while home teams have gone 13-12-3 ATS. Of course, there won't be any home games left, as the Final Four is played at a neutral site. But within our 14-10-3 statistic which relates to NIT Tourney favorites, it should be noted that all the profit is when the line has been priced from -1 to -9.5 points. Those single-digit favorites are 14-6-2 ATS this Tourney, while double-digit chalk has gone 0-4-1. That doesn't bode well for Clemson, which has been installed as a 3-point underdog vs. top-seeded SMU.
Teams off pointspread wins have gone 3-4 ATS vs. foes off a pointspread loss, including 1-3 when dressed up as an underdog.
And teams off upset wins have gone 0-2 ATS vs. foes not off upset wins.
Looking back at the last eight years of the NIT Tourney also finds this trend: underdogs are a super 22-9 ATS from the quarter-final round forward. That would bode well for Clemson and (possibly) Minnesota, should it remain as an underdog.
I will release my NIT Tourney selections for the Final Four on Monday. Don't miss out.
Good luck, as always...Al McMordie.