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NBA Angles To Keep An Eye On
by Al McMordie - 11/11/2013
2013 NBA – Early Betting Trends
The new NBA season is underway. And there are lots of changes afoot. The biggest change, by far, is pace of play. It’s up. Way up. Last year, the Rockets led the league with a 96.1 pace (possessions per 48 minutes). This season, a 96.1 pace would rank 14th! The Lakers’ pace of play leads the league this year at 100.5, and the average pace of play has soared to 95.4 from 92. Indeed, virtually every team in the league is playing at a faster pace this season. Only Milwaukee (91.8), Charlotte (91.1), Sacramento (90.8) and Toronto (90.0) are playing at a slower pace this season.
One of the reasons for this is that NBA teams can no longer delay the game, by knocking the ball after scoring a basket. The NBA now will dole out a technical foul upon that misconduct, so teams are able to get the ball and go more easily.
But even though pace of play is way up, there has been no advantage in the sports betting marketplace. Through November 10, there have been 48 ‘overs,’ 48 ‘unders’ and 1 push.
But one trend to keep an eye on is the play of underdogs. They’re clicking at a 56% rate (53-41-3 ATS), including 13-3-2 ATS when getting more than nine points.
Other strong trends are home teams in division games (12-6-1 ATS), underdogs in non-division games (45-31 ATS), road teams off back to back wins (12-5 ATS), and teams that failed to cover the spread in their previous game by 10+ points (18-10 ATS).
Good luck, as always…Al McMordie.