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College Football System of the Week (plus Free Play)
by Al McMordie - 10/13/2010
For our College Football System of the Week, let's take a look at a match-up out west in the WAC. There may not be a less popular team among gamblers this year than New Mexico State. After all, the Aggies have done nothing but burn money the entire season. They’re 1-4 straight-up, but 0-5 against the spread after failing to cover the spread by a half point in a 16-14 win over New Mexico last week. Now, off that emotional win over their rival, they have to travel up to Fresno to take on the Bulldogs. And I have a feeling that Fresno is going to be in an ornery mood after getting thoroughly embarrassed at home last week by Hawaii. Fresno was favored by 11 points in that game, yet lost 49-27. So, I expect Pat Hill’s men to come out with a sense of urgency vs. New Mexico State, and to pretty much take out their frustration on an over-matched Aggies squad.
And, if my database is correct, this should be a blowout win and cover by Fresno.
Consider that, since 1980, College Football home favorites of more than 19 points are a terrific 73-41 against the spread, if they failed to cover the spread in a 20-point, or worse defeat the previous week.
This system is already 1-0 this season as Penn State blew out Kent State 24-0 after losing 24-3 at Alabama. And this system makes perfect sense because teams always want to redeem themselves after getting blown out, and when playing in front of their home faithful, and against a team which is not expected to be competitive, we get an ideal situation for blowout wins. So, let’s take Fresno State here. Good luck, as always...Al McMordie.
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