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NFL Game 2 Golden Situation
by Tom Stryker - 09/17/2010
The first week of NFL action is in the books. Considering the home teams went 12-4 SU and 10-4-2 ATS, there’s a pretty good chance that most of you found your way into the profit zone last weekend. Regardless of whether you made or lost money, the NFL moves forward and now you’re forced to look at another 16 intriguing games.
So what do you do in game two? My database goes all the way back to 1980 and I looked at a number of different sets. For example: Road teams off road wins, road teams off home losses, home teams off blowout home wins and even home teams off crushing road losses. After hours of intense research, I discovered only one real area that provided us with serious reward potential. It is important to note that this game two situation requires that both teams be playing their second regular season game. Take a look.
Since 1980, game two hosts have struggled a touch posting a soft 197-226-13 ATS record. Surprisingly, teams that enter off a straight up loss have done much worse notching a dismal 94-126-5 ATS mark. The knee-jerk reaction might be to take a game two team at home coming off a straight up loss thinking that they would bounce back after losing their season opener. That’s exactly what you don’t want to do!
With our 94-126-5 ATS situation in hand, this system gets much worse if we bring in our opponent hungry and off a straight up loss as well. Since 1980, game two home teams in a “lose-lose” set (that is both teams enter off straight up losses) are a miserable 36-65-3 ATS. For the most part, the general public would always knee-jerk to a home team coming off a straight up loss especially early in the season. The linemaker knows that and he often brings this host in inflated and overpriced.
There are a couple of additional tighteners that can be applied to this general system that really make it pop. First, with the 36-65-3 ATS base in play, this situation crashes to a stunning 18-44 ATS provided this is a non-division game. Anytime two division teams do battle the importance of the game and the emotion involved is always greater. Early season division losses hurt the most and home teams enter with a much more intense focus. We were able to remove a mediocre 18-21-3 ATS mark from this system by eliminating division contests!
Second, provided our “play against” team did not lose by 20 points or more last, this awesome angle tightens up to a profitable 14-40 ATS! Blowout losses have a history of either making technical situations very good or very bad. In this case, we were able to eliminate a 4-4 ATS record from this system by taking out teams that got rocked by 20 points or more last.
Fortunately for us, there is one home team that is locked into this general system and the host also applies to both tighteners. Last Sunday, Detroit dropped its season opener at Chicago by six points and the Lions now must tackle an NFC East Philadelphia team that lost by seven in its own backyard to Green Bay.
There is one additional tightener that applies to this system that holds a stunning 0-21 ATS record (YES it does apply to the Lions) but that will remain for my eyes only. Good luck with the Green Birds on Sunday! I’ll be back next week with another money-making technical situation for your arsenal. Thank you and good luck!