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Oregon vs Oregon St Preview

   by Matt Fargo - 12/02/2009

Line Movement

Oregon opened as 9.5-point home favorites in most places and has been moving up and down all week. It made it up to -10.5 in most shops but has since come back down to the current line of -9.5. Early money has come in on Oregon St. with just over 60 percent of the wagers going that way.

The Total opened at 61 in most places and has risen a point to a point and a half across the board.


The defenses of both sides are a little dinged with some questions on the injury list but nothing too severe.


It will be cold in the Pacific Northwest but there is no threatening weather. Gametime temperatures will be in the high 30’s with no wind or precipitation expected.

Civil War For the Roses/b>

This is a big series in the state of Oregon obviously but it is likely this Thursday that the whole state shuts down at 6pm local time. There have been some big Beavers/Ducks matchups before but this one will go down in history.

This is the first time in the history of the Civil War, and we are talking 113 years, that the winner of this game claims the outright Pac Ten Title and goes to the Rose Bowl.

That is pretty amazing considering this is the final game of the season every year and there have been some pretty good teams in the mix. This one is for all the marbles and the whole state will be tuned in.

Spoiled Again?

Even though Oregon St. has a lot riding on this game, it would like nothing more than to knock Oregon out of the Rose Bowl just like the Ducks did to the Beavers last season.

Oregon St. was riding a six-game winning streak and was one win away from going to the Rose Bowl for the first time since 1964. While real beavers do not lay eggs, these Beavers did as they allowed 694 yards of offense and 65 points, the most ever allowed in the history of the program. In case anyone is counting, that is 1,073 games.

The road team has now won two straight games in this series after the home team won the previous 10 meetings by an average of 15.3 ppg.

Defense Will Decide

There have been some high scoring games in this series as the last seven meetings have all gone over the total and have averaged 70.6 ppg. The linesmakers are expecting another high-scoring affair as the total currently sits around 62 and will continue to rise.

Oregon St. is second in the Pac Ten and 26th in the nation in total offense, averaging 422.2 ypg while Oregon is third in the conference and 31st in the country in total offense, averaging 418.8 ypg. Combined, the two are averaging 70.1 ppg and the offense is all we are hearing about.

However, it is the defense that will decide the winner. The Beavers are 40th in the country in total defense while the Ducks are 27th so both units are very solid.

While many are hoping for and may likely get a shootout, the team that comes up with that one big stop could be heading to Pasadena.

Texas Two-Step

One of the big storylines is who is the best running back in the state of Oregon. Or is it Texas? Oregon redshirt freshman LaMichael James and Oregon St. sophomore Quizz Rodgers are both Texans born and bred but headed northwest to play football.

While they share nearly the same travels, they also have other things in common. Stature and output.

James, 5’9” and 192 pounds, has rushed 190 times for 1,310 yards (6.9 ypc) and 11 touchdowns. His 119.1 ypg average is 10th nationally.

Rodgers, 5’7” and 191 pounds, has rushed 239 times for 1,313 yards (5.5 ypc) and 19 touchdowns. His 119.4 ypg average is ninth nationally.

Generally quiet off the field, James and Rodgers have a reputation for trash-talking on the field and even though they say there is no competition, you can guarantee each wants to outduel the other.

Bottom Line

Oregon St. is 6-0 ATS in its last six road games against teams with a winning record and 10-2 ATS in its last 12 games coming off a conference win.

Oregon meanwhile is 9-2 ATS in its last 11 games following a win and is 5-0 ATS in its last five home games against a team with a winning road record.

Oregon is 11-2 to the ‘Over’ in its last 11 home games while Oregon St. is 7-1 to the ‘Under’ in its last eight road games.

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