Get the best handicapping articles and gambling advice throughout the football, basketball and baseball seasons from the world's top sports handicappers, as well as from Bovada (Bodog) Sportsbook and Casino.
Game 2 Puppy Love
by Tom Stryker - 09/08/2009
There’s nothing better than getting out of the gate in week one with a straight up victory. It makes all the hard work and effort put forth during the offseason and the month of August worth it.
The argument could be made that some teams have their fate determined after their season opener. A confidence-building win could spark a team greatly and propel them to a string of victories. On the other hand, a heart-breaking straight up loss could dampen the spirits of a squad for weeks to come.
I’m a firm believer that momentum is a valuable tool when handicapping college football. So, I decided to take a look at how well teams did after they won their first game of the season. At first, there wasn’t much there. The only area that looked profitable was taking a game two host coming off a blowout victory of 44 points or more – now 44-22 ATS for 66.7 percent dating back to 1980! There are five teams locked into that system this week: Tennessee, Boston College, Southern Miss, Nebraska and Florida.
After digging a little deeper, I did find one game two set of parameters that landed right smack in the middle of the profit zone. Take a look at this juicy situation.
Since 1980, PLAY ON any game two single digit road underdog provided they enter off a straight up win and their opponent is NOT off a straight up win.
29 Year ATS Record = 57-29 ATS for 66.2 percent!
This Week’s Play's = STANFORD & SOUTH CAROLINA
I really like the nuts and bolts of this technical situation. Here we have a game two short road dog checking in off a confidence-building victory matched up against an opponent that is either playing their first game of the season or coming off a straight up loss. Our “play on” team is on emotional high right now and they’ll be able to use the fact that they’re an underdog to motivate them again here!
There are a couple of areas where this technical gem improves. First, with our 57-29 ATS in hand, this system tightens up to a powerful 25-7 ATS provided our guest is battling a foe that arrives off a blemish of six or more points. Laying juice with a team coming off a straight up loss can be hazardous to your wallet. Not all teams have the ability to bounce back off a blowout loss and that fact is proven here.
Second, with the 25-7 ATS tightener in play, this system hits perfection at 9-0 ATS for 100 percent provided our road team is matched up against a conference opponent. Fortunately for us, there is one team that applies to both sets of parameters this week: South Carolina!
Good luck with the “Old Ball Coach” and the Gamecocks on Saturday. Be sure to return to this angle next week for more potential plays! TS