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NBA Hot and Cold Bets
by Matt Fargo - 12/08/2008
NBA Hot Bets This Week
Tuesday â€“ San Antonio Spurs at Dallas Mavericks 8:30 PM ET
After a very slow start, the Mavericks are heating up as they trail the Rockets by just a game and a half in the Southwest Division. After starting the year 2-7 (2-7 ATS), Dallas has gone 9-1 (7-3 ATS) in its last 10 games including five straight home wins after beginning the season with four straight home losses. To put that into perspective, Dallas lost seven home games all of last season and had only five total setbacks is 2006-07. The Mavericks are picking up steam at the right time as this is the third of seven straight home games. San Antonio won in Denver on Thursday and then rolled past Golden St. on Saturday to win its ninth game in its last 12 contests. The Spurs got off to a slow start as well, going 2-5 (1-6 ATS) and are improving as well but this is the start of a tough stretch of six games n 10 days including four on the road. The Mavericks won the first meeting this season by 17 points but that was against a Spurs team without Manu Ginobili. Dallas should continue its roll here.
Friday â€“ Toronto Raptors at New Jersey Nets 7:30 PM ET
The Nets are off to an 11-8 (12-7 ATS) start to the season which may not seem all too great but considering they came into the season picked to finish dead last in the Eastern Conference by many, they are well above expectations. They host New York on Wednesday before playing Toronto, a team that is playing the exact opposite. The Raptors were supposed to be stronger with the addition of Jermaine Oâ€™Neal but they have limped to an 8-11 (7-12 ATS) record to begin the year. They have lost four straight and the firing of head coach Sam Mitchell has not helped cure anything. Toronto got pounded in Utah by 27 points before losing to Portland at home on Sunday. To it credit, Toronto has played the 3rd toughest schedule in the NBA and it is just 1-9 (2-8 ATS) against the top 16 teams in the league. The Raptors are 7-2 (5-4 ATS) against the rest of the league and while this may seem like a play for the Nets, New Jersey actually falls into that latter category. We should see some excellent Toronto value in this spot.
NBA Cold Bets This Week
Wednesday â€“ Milwaukee Bucks at Golden St. Warriors 10:30 PM ET
Heading into Monday, Golden St. has lost nine straight games (2-7 ATS) to move to 5-15 (8-12 ATS) on the year and things are not good in the bay area. The Warriors are extremely young, the youngest team in the league actually, and they tend to fall off course quite easily. Defensively, Golden St. is the worst in the NBA as it is allowing 112 ppg on the season and the Warriors have given up an average of 120.1 ppg on 50.5 percent shooting during the losing streak. Seven of the games have been on the road but a 3-5 home record is nothing to be proud of. This is a team that needs to be faded until they can show they can actually win. Milwaukee has been up and down this season, going 9-13 but is 15-6-1 ATS as it has been able to stay within some pretty inflated numbers. The Bucks are 4-9 on the road (9-3-1 ATS) but after going 7-34 on the road a season ago, the four wins look very solid. Milwaukee lost both meetings to the Warriors last season by 20 and 30 points and those losses are hard to forget.
Thursday â€“ Portland Trailblazers at Utah Jazz 10:30 PM ET
Utah has been struggling with a 4-4 record (5-3 ATS) over its last eight games as injuries are playing havoc with this lineup. The most shocking thing is that three of those losses took place at home after starting the season 8-0 and after last year going 37-4 at EnergySolutions Arena. Injuries have no doubt played a role but losing to Chicago, New Jersey and Miami is pretty inexcusable. Overall the Jazz have played the 29th ranked schedule in the NBA and have played only three teams in the top ten. Surprisingly, Portland is part of that group. The Blazers are 15-7 (11-11 ATS) and this is with playing the 7th ranked schedule in the league. They are 7-1 (3-5 ATS) in their last eight games but three of those spread losses came by a total of 3.5 points combined. Portland is 8-7 (6-9 ATS) on the road and because of the solid straight up record, the value in its lines has been eliminated as proven by the dismal ATS records. The Blazers have turned into a very public team and with the recent struggles of Utah, the Jazz could be in great shape here.