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NBA Hot and Cold Bets

   by Matt Fargo - 11/18/2008

Tuesday – Milwaukee Bucks at Denver Nuggets 9:00 PM ET

The Detroit and Denver trade that took place was said that it would help both sides and that is definitely the case for the Nuggets. Chauncey Billups has played six games for Denver and it has gone 5-1 straight up and 4-2 against the number. Billups put up 12.5 ppg in his two games with the Pistons but has averaged 19.5 ppg and 6.0 apg since coming over. Allen Iverson’s numbers have been slightly better in Detroit but it is about wins and losses and Denver can not be happier. Milwaukee has surprised some by going 3-3 on the road (5-1 ATS) but two of those wins came against Memphis and Oklahoma City who are a combined 4-16. That has been the case during the whole season as the Bucks have played the 14th ranked schedule but are 0-6 against teams ranked within the top 16 and 5-0 against teams ranked outside the top 16. The Nuggets have won eight of the last 10 meetings while going 8-2 ATS over that stretch.

Wednesday – Cleveland Cavaliers at Detroit Pistons 7:30 PM ET

Detroit is back home following a week long, four-game west coast roadtrip where it went a solid 3-1 both straight up and against the number. The Pistons are 2-1 at home this season with the lone loss coming against the Celtics. They opened the season with non-convincing home wins over Washington and Indiana so they obviously have yet to beat a quality opponent at the Palace. They will get their chance here as no matter what happens to Cleveland on Tuesday against New Jersey, the Cavaliers will come into this matchup in first place in the Central Division. Cleveland is a perfect 5-0 against teams outside the top ten but 3-2 within that group and facing the Pistons is always a challenge. Detroit is 17-7 over the last 24 meetings with Cleveland over the last three years including two playoff series wins. The Pistons did not manage well with the spread during those playoff games as they went just 2-11 ATS in the 13 games but they are 8-4 ATS during the 12 regular season meetings.

NBA Cold Bets This Week

Tuesday – Chicago Bulls at Los Angeles Lakers 10:30 PM ET

I touched upon Chicago in last week’s edition and talked about how it performs at home prior to its long roadtrip during circus time. Now, I’ll take a look at how the Bulls fare at the beginning of the annual away stretch. Simply put, it is not good. The Bulls have lost the first game of their extended roadtrip in each of the last five seasons and they have not been close. All of the losses have been by at least seven points with the average margin of defeat being 11 ppg. Chicago is 0-5 ATS in those games and it has dropped seven of the last eight going back even further. It doesn’t get easier this season as the first game is in Los Angeles against the Lakers. Making matters even worse, the Bulls catch the Lakers coming off their first loss of the season after starting the year 7-0. Los Angeles is 5-0 ATS over the last five meetings and swept last season with wins by 28 and 12 points.

Friday – Memphis Grizzlies at Dallas Mavericks 8:30 PM ET

The Mavericks are in rough shape and seem to have been that way ever since Jason Kidd arrived in town. Dallas went 16-17 after the acquisition of Kidd last season and this year has been a disaster as it is 3-7 and remains the only team in the NBA without a home win. The Mavericks are 0-4 at home and have missed the cover in each of those as well. Dallas won in overtime against the Knicks in New York on Sunday and has to play at Charlotte and Houston before returning home on Friday in trying to notch that first victory at American Airlines Center. The good news is the Mavericks catch Memphis who is currently 1-5 on the road. However, Memphis has been competitive in most of those games, going 3-3 ATS in those six road contests. Memphis is 1-15 in the last 16 meetings with Dallas including 5-11 ATS but most of that damage was done three years ago. The Grizzlies are 0-8 the last two years but 4-4 against the number.

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