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Game 3 Pointspread Perfection
by Tom Stryker - 09/13/2007
The strength of my college football database never ceases to amaze me. I can sit there tucked away in my office and uncover gem after gem. These technical situations aren't based on assumptions. They are real teams in logical sets.
I stumbled across this week's beauty immediately after watching Notre Dame (my favorite) stumble again at Penn State. The Irish rest at 0-2 and looked dismal in both performances. Do teams in this situation dig down deep and pick up a win the next time out? Or, do things go from bad to worse in a game three setting? You might be surprised at what I found.
Since 1980, game three road teams that arrive off back-to-back SU and ATS losses to open the season are a profitable 50-29-2 ATS for 63.2 percent. Not too shabby, eh? This weekend, there are five teams locked into this general situation: Toledo, Eastern Michigan, Notre Dame, Western Michigan and San Jose State. Let's face it, no one wants to invest their hard-earned money on a college team that has fallen flat on their face in their first two tests of the season. In reality, it's exactly what you should do!
There are a couple of tighteners to this system that really make it pop. First, if our guest was on foreign soil last, this technical situation zips to a sterling 31-11-1 ATS for 73.8 percent! In a back-to-back on the road, there's no way the general public would want to jump on this winless guest. Too many things could go wrong.
With our 31-11-1 ATS mark in hand, this technical treat zips to a jaw-dropping 19-4 ATS for 82.6 percent provided the team we are playing against checks in off a straight up loss. From that list of five in the general set, only two teams remain: Notre Dame and San Jose State. This special tightener eliminates momentum from the mix and, as you know from previous posts of mine, good 'ol "MO" is a powerful tool when it comes to college football handicapping.
If 19-4 ATS isn't good enough for you, then let's take this special system one step further. If our "play on" winless guest won three or more games last season, this situation explodes to an undefeated 14-0 ATS for 100 percent! Yes men, Notre Dame and San Jose State both apply to this perfect tightener!
Good luck with the Irish and Spartans on Saturday and be sure to check back next week for another profitable system!