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NBA Playoff Dogs
by Tom Stryker - 04/28/2007
There are a ton of great systems that work like a charm in the NBA Playoffs. Some of these technical sets work any time in any series. Others need to be used at specific moments. This week's article breaks down a post season system of mine that will most likely pop in games five or seven in the first round.
The basic situation is really quite simple.
Since 1990, NBA Playoff double-digit underdogs are a tremendous 35-15-1 ATS for 70.0 percent provided they enter off a straight up post season loss.
If you've made it to the Playoffs, there's a pretty good chance you're an above average team. Coming off a blemish, adjustments are made and a sense of urgency takes over. Each series is a best-of-seven and losses put you that much closer to elimination. Pro teams play harder coming off a straight up post-season loss and all of those points become a premium! So far this year, there has been one team already cash in this situation. On Wednesday, April 25th, Washington (+12) covered at Cleveland.
There are a couple of tighteners to this system that really make it pop. First, if our double-digit puppy is matched up against an opponent that owns a won/loss percentage of .745 or better, this awesome situation improves to a blistering 25-5-1 ATS for 83.3 percent. The elite teams in the NBA Playoffs usually come at a much higher price simply because the general public loves to invest on quality chalk. As you can see by the record of my NBA Playoff Dogs That Bite system, that's exactly what you DON'T want to do here.
There is one way to make this situation perfect. With our 25-5-1 ATS record in hand, this system improves to a perfect 13-0-1 ATS provided our "play on" pooch also lost to the pointspread by five points or more last. Obviously, this situation is quite rare. It's only popped 14 times in 17 years.
After breaking down Round 1 of the playoffs, there's a good chance that the 35-15-1 ATS general system could pop again in Game 5 of the Washington versus Cleveland series, the Golden State versus Dallas series and the LA Lakers versus Phoenix series. The 25-5-1 ATS and perfect 13-0-1 ATS tightener could only apply to the Lakers and Warriors because the Suns and Mavs qualify with their lofty won/loss percentage.
Let's hope that Cleveland, Los Angeles and Golden State can find a way to win a game on their home floor over the next few days so we can take advantage of this awesome system in Game 5 or Game 7.
I'll be back next week with an inside look at Round 2 of the NBA Playoffs. Best of luck men. TS