Get the best handicapping articles and gambling advice throughout the football, basketball and baseball seasons from the world's top sports handicappers, as well as from Bovada (Bodog) Sportsbook and Casino.
NBA Late Season Wagering
by Tom Stryker - 04/13/2007
I've been handicapping the NBA for over two decades. Each year, as the regular season winds down, there are so many investors that stop wagering on games right before the playoffs. The main reason is simple. Most feel that unless a team is actually playing for something they'll just go through the motions. I can understand why sports bettors feel that way. There's a common sense approach to that thought process. But, to think that excellent wagering opportunities don't exist in the last few games of the regular season is flat out wrong.
Thanks to my powerful NBA database I've been able to isolate some very good late-season systems. These angles don't rely on just those teams that are trying to improve their playoff position. Instead, they factor in the entire league in a bunch of different scenarios that flat out work. Below, I'll break down one simple system that has made me a ton of money in the past.
Since the 1990-91 season, regular season home teams from game 80-82 have produced a better than average 307-281 ATS record for 52.2 percent. There's not a ton of dough in that situation but that's the base we'll use to isolate more profitable sets. Within this basic situation there are five areas that make this game 80-82 system work like a charm.
First, if our game 80-82 host is matched up against a foe that enters off back-to-back SU and ATS losses, this situation carries a dismal 28-45 ATS record and is currently on a 16-35 ATS run since 1995.
Second, if our game 80-82 host is matched up against one of the NBA's best - a foe that carries a won/loss percentage of .667 or better - this late-season situation improves to a blistering 65-38 ATS for 62.3 percent.
Third, if our game 80-82 host is battling a weaker foe - one that owns a won/loss percentage of .333 or less - this technical set drops to 46-70 ATS and is on a woeful 20-48 ATS run since 1997.
Fourth, if our game 80-82 host enters off a double-digit straight up win, this NBA Magic system zips to a sterling 79-51 ATS for 60.7 percent!
Those four areas all work very well as you can see. But, there is one specific situation that really serves up a a ton of profit. Here it is:
Play ON any game 80-82 home team coming off a straight up loss of 15 points or more provided their opponent checks in off a straight up win.
RECORD SINCE 1990 - 35-13 ATS for 72.9 percent
There is one tightener to this Game 80-82 system that really makes this situation pop. With the 35-13 ATS in hand, our host improves to a near perfect 13-1 ATS provided they are matched up against a foe that carries a won/loss percentage of .675 or better!
On Friday, April 13th these game 80-82 situations will pop daily. By doing about 15 minutes of homework each day, you can figure out the teams that apply to the five different money-making parameters.
Good luck and be sure to check back on Friday for an informative technical article regarding the NBA Playoffs. Thank you and best of luck, Tom Stryker.