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NFL Road Team with No Bark
by Tom Stryker - 12/01/2006
With the college season coming to a close this weekend, I decided to switch gears and jump to the pro ranks for this week's System of the Week.
Handicapping the NFL can be a real grind. There are so many up and down moments. Emotion, which plays a huge part in college football, is rarely effective on Sunday's. It takes a serious payback situation, an elite visitor or the post-season for some teams to get excited.
Parity exists too. On any given Sunday any team in the league can be defeated. These men are all professionals and own enough talent to peform at a very high level. If they didn't, they wouldn't be on the roster!
This week's NFL system has nothing to do with parity. But, it does touch on the emotional side of things. Take a look.
Play AGAINST any NFL road team provided they enter this contest off three consecutive pointspread covers all as an underdog.
27-Year Record - 49-30-2 ATS for 62.0 percent
In this specific situation, we are going against a pro team that obviously just played three good games in a row. Considering they were priced as the underdog in each contest, they were forced to rise up to a higher level to compete. Emotionally, that can take a toll on a team. The level of difficulty increases in this set when our overachieving team is forced to play on the road.
There are a couple of parameters within this system that really make it pop. If our guest is matched up against an opponent that enters with momentum off a straight up victory, this situation dips to a shocking 9-30 ATS. Off three (or more) consecutive underdog pointspread wins, our weary traveler simply runs out of gas when matched up against a foe coming home off a huge win.
There is one more tightener to this system that makes it nearly perfect. With our 30-9 ATS in hand and our "play against" side carrying a won/loss percentage of .450 or better, this Road Team with No Bark system zips to an amazing 13-1 ATS for 92.9 percent!
This week, there is one NFL side locked into this "play against" situation: San Francisco! Good luck with New Orleans on Sunday and be sure to check back next Wednesday for another handicapping article. Thank you and best of luck, TS!