The Reason NBA Games Are Going Under

by Wayne Root

Give us that Corporate Money! 
Wilson is believed to be paying between $25 million and $35 million annually for the NBA contract to supply basketballs. Chicago-based Wilson is part of Amer Sports, which was acquired in 2019 by an ownership consortium including ANTA Sports, China’s largest sportswear brand. “Certainly the NBA is extremely cognizant of the importance of China to its long-term growth,” said Jon Bogert, the editor and publisher of Sporting Goods Intelligence, a publication that tracks the industry. “ANTA has a huge retail footprint in China. 
 
Give us that Easy Cash!
Why is this news a concern to all NBA sports bettors? There are 30 NBA teams and few are scoring points as in the past few seasons so far. Of the thirty teams, only four are + 2 wins to the over. There are four other teams that are +1 to the over but with juice, the bettors are losing. Betting over the total has only been profitable to four or thirty NBA teams. 
 
How to take Advantage 
The other 20 teams are all losing if you bet the over. Twelve teams have only gone over the posted total 2 times with eight teams at one or none. Betting the under on these 22 teams has huge positive results to the betting gambler. Betting game to go under the spread is making gamblers a fortune.
 
The Reason Games are Falling Under the Total
And there are legitimate reasons. The grooves on these new basketballs are different. The leather is not tanned exactly the same way as Spaulding did for 37 years. The feel of the ball seems different. More teams are shooting three point shots and those shots are 100% about feel. When they don’t feel right coming off your fingers, that’s a disaster. Something that takes time to get used to change whether real or imagined. 
 
Oddsmakers have not Currently 
Adjusted Lines on Totals
The oddsmakers are still making lines based on the last two year averages which in long term ends up close to 50/50 by years end. The average owner/under set is around 220. The average final is about 210 thus far. The oddsmakers will start to trend the opening total downward but they are typical slow to change. 
 
As from the Manufacture
“The biggest thing is to get the balls broken in and get the players comfortable with the ball, and it’s the first time in 37 years that an NBA team is starting a season with new balls that they have to break in.” Additionally quoted; “So that’s been the one thing that I think everybody recognizes and acknowledges so there are no complaints about the ball, it’s more like, ‘Gosh I got to get it broken in. I got to get it broken in before it feels good.’
 
From Players and Teams
‘The ball feels OK but it needs to get broken in.’ And on the plus side they’re saying things like, it seems to be breaking in quicker than the other guys’ did and stuff like that so some coaches are quoted as saying; “I’m cautiously optimistic and excited.”
 
Lastly, Reminder for the Future
As the players get used to the feel of the Wilson basketball, there will be a cross point with a rise in scoring and an adjustment to lower opening point spreads by the oddsmakers. Our charts will certainly be zoomed into that data as should yours if you do your on handicapping of NBA totals. 
 
In Closing,
We think that this tip and others like it help educate and illustrate that the professional handicappers provide winners and reason why bets win and sports gambling is profitable. 

All photographic images used for editorial content have been licensed from the Associated Press.

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