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College FB Blowout Encore

   by Tom Stryker - 09/06/2006

Momentum. Remember that word when you’re handicapping college football. Confidence-building wins can do great things for the morale and emotion of a team. Early in the season, successful programs feed off the electric energy that victories provide. Teams that get out of the gate quickly have shown a tendency to stay ahead of the pack and keep on winning. That fact is proven in the “Game 2 Blowout Encoreâ€쳌 situation I’m about to reveal. Here’s what you want to do:

PLAY ON any game two college underdog or favorite of -10 or less provided they’re coming off a 35-point or more straight up victory in their season opener.

Since 1980, that simple system has produced 73 winners out of 124 occurrences for a profitable 58.8 percent. This weekend, there are 14 teams locked into that “play onâ€쳌 situation: Boise State, Oregon State, Clemson, Tulsa, Minnesota, Missouri, UNLV, Georgia, Texas, Oregon, Troy State, Connecticut, USC and Nebraska.

If you break that core system down, you’ll find that it’s pretty basic. All we’re really doing is taking a fairly priced team coming off a confidence-building victory. By eliminating double-digit favorites from this group we immediately remove those potential plays that would most likely come overpriced.

If you believe that confidence leads to success, then you’ll agree with the next parameter that tightens up this system beautifully. If our game two “play onâ€쳌 team enters off a blowout win of 35 points or more and they smashed the Las Vegas pointspread by 10 or more, this powerful system explodes to a sparkling 32-14 ATS for 69.5 percent! Clemson, Minnesota, Oregon, USC and Nebraska fit this sweet tightener. Not only is our “play onâ€쳌 team off an impressive straight up win but they also shredded the Las Vegas line the “professionalsâ€쳌 posted on them last week! It’s one thing to beat your opponent. It’s another when you embarrass the oddsmaker in the process! In my 23 years of sports handicapping, line-differentials have played a big part in making average systems great. That’s exactly what happened here.

With my 32-14 ATS system in hand, I kicked my college football database up a notch to see if I could find anything else to make it stronger. There was one situation that worked nicely. If our “play onâ€쳌 team won ten or more games last year, this system zipped to a near perfect 12-2 ATS for 85.7 percent. Two teams are locked into this mind-boggling tightener on Saturday: Oregon and USC. If a team wins 10-plus games in a season, there’s a pretty good chance they’ll be decent the following year. This special tightener gives us the “cream of the cropâ€쳌 – those traditional programs that reload and consistently win.

Last weekend, Last weekend, Oregon crushed Stanford by the score of 48-10 and USC smashed Arkansas by a 50-14 margin. Both the Ducks and Trojans fit my “Game 2 Blowout Encoreâ€쳌 system and all the tighteners that apply. Good luck with those two college football powerhouses and be sure to check back next week for another profitable handicapping article! Thanks, Tom!

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