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College FB Blowout Encore
by Tom Stryker - 09/06/2006
Momentum. Remember that word when youâ€™re handicapping college football. Confidence-building wins can do great things for the morale and emotion of a team. Early in the season, successful programs feed off the electric energy that victories provide. Teams that get out of the gate quickly have shown a tendency to stay ahead of the pack and keep on winning. That fact is proven in the â€œGame 2 Blowout Encoreâ€쳌 situation Iâ€™m about to reveal. Hereâ€™s what you want to do:
PLAY ON any game two college underdog or favorite of -10 or less provided theyâ€™re coming off a 35-point or more straight up victory in their season opener.
Since 1980, that simple system has produced 73 winners out of 124 occurrences for a profitable 58.8 percent. This weekend, there are 14 teams locked into that â€œplay onâ€쳌 situation: Boise State, Oregon State, Clemson, Tulsa, Minnesota, Missouri, UNLV, Georgia, Texas, Oregon, Troy State, Connecticut, USC and Nebraska.
If you break that core system down, youâ€™ll find that itâ€™s pretty basic. All weâ€™re really doing is taking a fairly priced team coming off a confidence-building victory. By eliminating double-digit favorites from this group we immediately remove those potential plays that would most likely come overpriced.
If you believe that confidence leads to success, then youâ€™ll agree with the next parameter that tightens up this system beautifully. If our game two â€œplay onâ€쳌 team enters off a blowout win of 35 points or more and they smashed the Las Vegas pointspread by 10 or more, this powerful system explodes to a sparkling 32-14 ATS for 69.5 percent! Clemson, Minnesota, Oregon, USC and Nebraska fit this sweet tightener. Not only is our â€œplay onâ€쳌 team off an impressive straight up win but they also shredded the Las Vegas line the â€œprofessionalsâ€쳌 posted on them last week! Itâ€™s one thing to beat your opponent. Itâ€™s another when you embarrass the oddsmaker in the process! In my 23 years of sports handicapping, line-differentials have played a big part in making average systems great. Thatâ€™s exactly what happened here.
With my 32-14 ATS system in hand, I kicked my college football database up a notch to see if I could find anything else to make it stronger. There was one situation that worked nicely. If our â€œplay onâ€쳌 team won ten or more games last year, this system zipped to a near perfect 12-2 ATS for 85.7 percent. Two teams are locked into this mind-boggling tightener on Saturday: Oregon and USC. If a team wins 10-plus games in a season, thereâ€™s a pretty good chance theyâ€™ll be decent the following year. This special tightener gives us the â€œcream of the cropâ€쳌 â€“ those traditional programs that reload and consistently win.
Last weekend, Last weekend, Oregon crushed Stanford by the score of 48-10 and USC smashed Arkansas by a 50-14 margin. Both the Ducks and Trojans fit my â€œGame 2 Blowout Encoreâ€쳌 system and all the tighteners that apply. Good luck with those two college football powerhouses and be sure to check back next week for another profitable handicapping article! Thanks, Tom!