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One of College Basketball's Toughest Encores
by Tom Stryker - 02/11/2006
Emotion plays a big part in sports. It doesn't matter if it's football, basketball or baseball, one team is usually "getting up" for another. Thankfully, this emotional part of the game exists because it leads sports handicappers and investors to an array of profitable opportunities. This specific technical situation is one of my favorites. It assembled from criteria that flat out works in the three major sports that I handicap. Here's a peek at a system that I call, "One of College Basketball's Toughest Encore's."
System: PLAY AGAINST any college basketball conference home favorite of -14 or more coming off a straight up road underdog win provided they are matched up against an opponent that owns a won/loss percentage of .500 or less.
Record Since 1990 = 94-57 ATS for 62.3 percent
This hardwood system preys on a letdown theory that has been making money in football, basketball and baseball over the years. Here we have a team installed as a high-priced home favorite that returns home off an emotional upset victory and finds itself matched up against an opponent it could probably beat in its sleep. If you simply look at the parameters that make up this technical situation, it's easy to understand why it makes money. Why would a team show an interest in pummeling an inferior opponent especially after pulling off a dramatic upset on the road? This emotional letdown makes perfect sense.
There are a few additional tighteners to this general situation that really make it pop. First, if our host smashed the pointspread in its last game and beat the line nine points or more, this system dips to a stiff 36-63 ATS. Obviously, if a team was undervalued before the linemaker will compensate for his mistake and could place too much value this time around. Finally, with our 36-63 ATS in hand and our home team carrying a won/loss percentage of .590 or better, this unique situation crashes to a shocking 24-50 ATS. Obviously, the better teams have more trouble rebounding emotionally off that upset victory.
There is one potential play on Febuary 12th - MIAMI OHIO provided the RedHawks are favored by -14 points or more. Miami knocked off Buffalo on the road in its last game as a two-point underdog. If the MU price is right, the Hawks will fit the general system and all of its tighteners.
Good luck with Ball State on Sunday and be sure to check back next week for another college basketball situation straight from Tom Stryker's system book. Thank you and best of luck!