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Mid American Conference System
by Tom Stryker - 02/03/2006
A few weeks ago, I broke down a Big 10 Conference trend that has been making money left and right since the 2003 season. This technical situation went against Big 10 road dogs entering off two or more home games. This sweet angle has been cashing tickets all season long (15-39-2 ATS including 4-7 ATS this year) and now it's time to add another piece of arsenal that we can use to beat "the man" on a weekly basis.
Located in South Bend, Indiana, I'm right in the heart of basketball country. The Big 10, Notre Dame (and the Big East), the Horizon League and the MAC are all within my grasp. There are plenty of great trends and angles that I own for each of those four conferences. Today, I'm going to look at one special trend that has been working like a charm in the MAC.
The Mid American Conference has been making some noise in both football and basketball for a few years now. Early in my career, the MAC was referred to as the "Little" Big 10 and rarely respected by those "bigger" schools in the area. Not any more. Home fields and home courts in the MAC have earned the respect from teams inside and outside of the conference.
This MAC Conference trend is a simple one that has been banging the cash register regularly since the 1990 season. The base of this technical situation reads as follows:
Play ON any MAC basketball home favorite of -9.5 or less provided they enter off back-to-back straight up losses and they are NOT playing with same season single revenge.
Record Since 1990 = 85-56 ATS for 60.2 percent
MAC hosts know how to protect their homecourt especially with their backs to the wall. When we eliminate same season revenge motivation which causes the pointspread to become inflated, this technical situation really pops. Within the base of this conference trend there are four areas where it works really well. Take a look:
1. If our MAC host is going into revenge - 38-19 ATS for 66.7 percent
2. Their opponent enters off back-to-back SU wins - 30-15 ATS for 66.7 percent
3. If their foe checks in off back-to-back SU losses - 29-10 ATS for 74.4 percent
4. Their foe owns a W/L percentage of .333 or less - 20-6 ATS for 76.9 percent
As you can see, this MAC technical situation has been very reliable and very profitable.
On Saturday, February 4th, there is one MAC school in this technical situation - BUFFALO. Provided the Bulls come favored by -9.5 or less (and they should), Buffalo will fit the general 85-56 ATS set. Since Buffy's opponent (Miami) enters off back-to-back SU wins, the Bulls will also fit tightener No. 2 which carries a solid 30-15 ATS mark.
Good luck with the Buffalo Bulls this weekend and be sure to check back next week for another power conference trend. Thank you and best of luck, Tom stryker.