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'Last Home Game' Honey

   by Tom Stryker - 11/11/2005

It’s called “Senior Dayâ€쳌 – the final home game of the regular season. If you truly are a senior, it’s the last time you’ll button up your chinstrap, run out of the tunnel and hear the roar of the home crowd. Emotions run very high. No one wants to leave the field of play on this day a loser. The blood, sweat and tears…well, they’re almost over. You get one more chance to experience the thrill of victory and you give it everything you’ve got



Since emotions play a big part in college football handicapping, “Last Home Gameâ€쳌 sets can be very profitable. I’ve been monitoring a handful of great “LHGâ€쳌 systems and the one I’m going to share with you today is pretty powerful. This one is called “Last Home Game Honeyâ€쳌 and its results have been phenomenal. Take a look.



On the blind, teams playing in their last home game of the season hold a 312-272 ATS record for 53.5 percent provided they enter off a straight up road win. That’s a huge sample and certainly there is no way you would want to play every school in that set. There’s simply not enough profit there. But, by adding two simple parameters, we can convert this technical situation into one that “shows us the moneyâ€쳌.



Since 1980, last home game favorites of -21 or less that enter off a straight up road win are a tremendous 103-57 ATS for 64.3 percent provided this is NOT their last game of the season. On Saturday, there are five schools that fit this situation: Louisiana Lafayette, Minnesota, Oregon State, UAB and Western Michigan. If we bring our home team in off an ATS win as well, this system zips to a sterling 82-36 ATS for 69.4 percent. Out of those five teams, the only one that doesn’t qualify in this tightener is Louisiana Lafayette.



There is one more additional tightener that applies to two sides on Saturday that demands more attention. It seems those “play onâ€쳌 schools that haven’t experienced as much success during the course of the season do a little better when this system pops. Check this out! If our last home game honey owns a won/loss percentage that is less than .625, this powerful technical situation explodes to a magnificent 35-6 ATS for 85.3 percent! If you think about that tightener for a second, it makes perfect sense. If you haven’t been at your best during the course of the regular season, the most certainly you will want to close on a high note. That would mean a victory in your last home game! There are two teams that fit this special tightener this weekend: Oregon State and UAB!



Good luck with the Beavers and Blazers and be sure to check back next week for another power system! Thank you and best of luck, Tom Stryker.

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