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Far From Perfect

   by Tom Stryker - 11/02/2005

As the college football season winds down, it seems like the investment opportunities become quite plentiful. Maybe that’s because there are no more surprises out there? Each team has displayed its strengths and weaknesses and you know what they can or cannot do. Personally, I love this time of the year. My college football data base is loaded with season-ending angles that have done nothing but make money for me on an annual basis. The one I’m about to show is one of my favorites.

I call this beauty “Far From Perfectâ€쳌 because it goes right after those undefeated teams that no one wants to try and beat. As you know, the general public loves to play the top five teams in the country especially at the end of the year. Because of that, the lines on those schools are always inflated – regardless of the opponent they’re matched up against! Take a look at the following technical situation and you’ll see exactly what I mean.

Since 1980 at game nine of the season or later, undefeated road teams are a shocking 29-53 ATS provided they are matched up against an opponent that checks in off a straight up win. If our guest is battling a foe that enters off a pointspread win as well, this college system dips to a dismal 19-38 ATS! This situation clearly illustrates my point. We have an undefeated road team laying points into a home team coming off a momentum-building victory! The general public won't think for a second about what the home team has done. Instead, all those "chalk eaters" want to do is lay the lumber with that undefeated juggernaut. As you can plainly see, that's NOT a good idea.

There are a couple of ways to make this situation even more profitable. In conference play and with our 19-38 ATS set in hand, this “Far From Perfectâ€쳌 system crashes to a stiff 11-31 ATS including 6-22 ATS if our host snarled an impressive road win in its last game. There is one undefeated team that is locked into this “play againstâ€쳌 system and all of the tighteners – UCLA!

The 8-0 SU Bruins must travel to the desert to face a bunch of Wildcats who are sky high after beating OSU in Corvallis. With a won/loss percentage of .375 or better and favored on the conference road, UCLA has struggled posting a 20-35 ATS record. In that role going into revenge, the Bruins are much worse notching a dismal 11-25-1 ATS mark. This game against 'Zona won't be a walk-in-the-park for UCLA. The system and team trend prove that point.

Good luck with Arizona and be sure to check back next week for another powerful system. Thank you and best of luck, Tom Stryker.

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