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Warriors/Cavs Series Prediction

   by ASA - 05/30/2018


The pundits keep telling us that LeBron has carried this Cavs team on his back to the Finals again but we should really consider who he's beat to get here. LeBron has now made 8 straight, and nine overall Finals appearances but has been a series dog in seven of those. That tells you just how watered down the Eastern Conference has been since he joined the league and how it's translated to him getting to this point every year. The Cavaliers battled through the Eastern Conference Playoffs this season by beating a Pacers team in the opening round that was projected to win just 30.5 games this season. They then moved on to face the #1 seed Toronto Raptors who have a short term history of choking in the Playoffs with a 11-20 SU record in the post season. In the EC Finals they beat a Celtics team with the youngest roster in the NBA, without their two best players, in a 7-game series. That in a nutshell tells us why the Warriors are basically a 10-1 series favorite to win another NBA Championship over anyone that comes out of the East.

The opening line on Game 1 of the Finals has the Warriors favored by 12-points which is tied for the largest line on a Finals game ever in NBA history. To put this in better perspective the Warriors were a 9-point favorite at home over San Antonio the 7th seed in the West. In the next round the Warriors were minus -11.5-points against the Pelicans at home who were the 6th seed. In other words the best team to come out of the East is worse in the oddsmakers eyes than two of the three worst playoff teams from the West. Golden State is obviously going to be a sizeable favorite in every game of this series and will make short work of the Cavs but we do like Cleveland to win one game at home.

We're not sure how much more needs to be said about the Warriors as they simply have the best roster in the NBA. Golden State was the 11th best defensive efficiency team in the NBA during the regular season and the 3rd most efficient offensively. The Warriors have the most efficient defense in the playoffs allowing just 1.027 points per possession and just held the league's best offense of the Rockets to less than 100 points in five straight games. The Cavaliers had the 29th worst defensive efficiency numbers in the league during the regular season and they won't slow down this Warriors offense. Cleveland has seen their offensive efficiency numbers dip in the post season from 1.129PPP during the regular season to just 1.099PPP in the playoffs and it only gets tougher in the Finals.

Lost value with the Cavaliers! We hope you didn't bet Cleveland before the start of the season at plus +$500 to win the NBA Finals, and now could get them at plus +$725 when they are actually in the Finals. There is no chance we are taking the Dog and we aren't about to put up $1000 to win $100 on the Warriors, but we will step in with a wager on the Warriors to win in exactly 5 games at minus -$120.

The 2018-19 NBA season can't get here soon enough!

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