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NBA Season Wins Wagers
by ASA - 10/05/2017
Eastern Conference Atlantic - Team by Team Total Win Wagers
Boston Celtics (OVER 54) The Celtics made some bold moves in the offseason by adding All-Stars Kyrie Irving (Cavs) and Gordon Hayward (Jazz) to a team that won 53 regular season games a year ago. In addition to those two, don’t forget about another other key piece in Marcus Morris (14PPG, 4.6RPG) who came over from Detroit. This is the best young starting 5 in the East but depth could be a concern late in the season and the playoffs. If you’re a basketball purist then you know just how great of a coach Brad Stevens is and he’ll have these Stars on the same page early on. Kyrie didn’t benefit from playing with LeBron like a great ‘spot up’ shooter would because he’s the type of playmaking point guard that needs the ball in his hands. Kyrie is going to have a MONSTER year and is maybe the most talented 1 on 1 offensive player in the entire NBA. We can’t wait to see just how good rookie Jayson Tatum will be and expect him to be a major contributor this season. Throw in Al Horford and you have a team In the water downed East that can win OVER 54 games.
New York Knicks (NO PLAY 29.5) Gone from New York are Carmelo Anthony and GM Phil Jackson which means a whole lotta less drama in the Big Apple. That means the Knicks look to the future and will build around PF Kristaps Porzingis. Porzingis was New York’s best player a year ago ranking 68th in Real Plus Minus numbers. Now that head coach Jeff Hornacek isn’t handcuffed running the Triangle offense, and Melo holding the ball, they should improve upon their 18th ranked offensive efficiency numbers. NY also brought in Tim Hardaway Jr who averaged a career high 14.5PPG in Atlanta last year. Doug McDermott and Enes Kanter (from Thunder) also join the Knicks from the Carmelo deal and provide depth and additional scoring. The Knicks are going to struggle with poor guard play and will again be right around that 31 win total from a year ago. Slight lean to the OVER here but not enough to make a wager. Pass.
Toronto Raptors (OVER 47.5) Won 56 regular season games two years ago then 51 in 2016-17. The Raptors are what we call a ‘false’ contender. Great individual talent with Kyle Lowry and DeMar DeRozan, and a team built to win in the regular season, but they continually under-achieve in the postseason. Toronto will once again tease their fans with a solid regular season but go belly up in the Playoffs. The Raptors efficiency ratings during the regular season are outstanding with an offense that averages 1.123 points per possession and a defense allowing just 1.079 PPP. In the playoffs though those numbers drop to 1.038PPP offensively and 1.100 defensively. Toronto had the 4th best overall point differential in the NBA at +4.3PPG in the regular season a year ago but a lot of their impressive numbers are bolstered by playing in the Atlantic Division with Philly, Brooklyn and New York. Those three teams combined for just 79 wins a year ago, lowest win total for the bottom three teams in any division a year ago. Barring several injuries or a major trade this team will succeed in the regular season again and win 50 plus games, but don’t expect a playoff run. Bet OVER if anything.
Philadelphia 76ers (UNDER 39.5) There are high hopes in Philly surrounding this 76ers team and expectations this could be a playoff roster in the weak East. But we’ll have to pull a “not so fast my friend” here and pump the brakes in the Sixers team. Last year this team won 28 games which was a dramatic improvement over their 10 wins from the prior season but we don’t see another bump in wins this season. The starting lineup for Philly could very well feature four players under the age of 26 with three of those having a combined 31 games experience. Joel Embiid could be a budding star if he can stay healthy. He played in just 31 games last season but averaged over 20PPG, 7.8RPG and had team high player efficiency rating (PER) of 24.2. There will be a ton of pressure on Ben Simmons (missed his entire rookie season) and Markelle Fultz, who are making their debuts this season. The addition of vet J.J. Redick will bolster their guard play and perimeter shooting, but his overall shooting percentages took a dip last year which could be an indicator age is catching up to this 11 year vet. Even with their improvement in wins last season, the 76ers still had the 4th worst efficiency differential numbers (offensive efficiency minus defensive efficiency) in the NBA at minus -5.7EDIF. Expecting the 76ers to win nearly half of their regular season games is a stretch and we’ll side with under 39.5 wins.
Brooklyn Nets (OVER 27) The Nets have won just 21 and 20 games the past two seasons and had the second worst point differential in the NBA last season at minus -6.7PPG. They weren’t very efficient offensively (1.04 points per possession) and only Phoenix gave up more points per game than the Nets. Brooklyn made an effort to improve their roster by trading for D’Angelo Russell and Timofey Mozgov of the Lakers, along with signing DeMarre Carroll (Toronto) and Allen Crabbe of Portland. The Nets also have circus attraction Jeremy Lin on the roster who’s OK but certainly not great. So here’s the dilemma for Nets fans. The aforementioned starting lineup has four players with a negative real plus/minus differential with DeMarre Carroll having the highest +/- number of +1.6 which was 101st in the league last season. Carroll saw his season averages drop last year from 12.6PPG the year before to 8.9PPG last season. His rebounding numbers dropped too from 5.3RPG to just 3.8RPG. So even though it looks like Brooklyn made some strides to improve, they may not have. Strangely enough, the Nets won just 11 game against Eastern Conference opponents last year and 9 versus the West. If they can manage that same win total in the West this year we feel they can win 20 in the East. Slight lean to over here.
We will continue to add our Season Over/Under Win total bets throughout the week and our overall Champion prediction. Don't miss any of the winning action in the NBA this season from ASA here at Big Als.