The regular season has concluded for the Argentina Copa de la Liga and now the top 4 teams from each group will play to see who takes home the title this season. The playoffs begin on Saturday, April 20 with the 4 quarter-final matches, the winner needing to win 3 matches to claim the title. Now it is time to see which of these 8 teams left in the competition has the best chance of lifting the 2024 Argentina Copa de la Liga Profesional Title in this 1st phase of the season.
To Win Outright
River Plate +300: River Plate is coming into the playoffs with the best chance at winning according to the oddsmakers. They finished the regular season in 1st place of Group A with 27 points from a 7-6-1 record overall. They scored 26 goals in their 14 matches while allowing 10 goals in those. They were 4-3-0 at home, scoring 15 goals while allowing 5 goals, and they were 3-3-1 away from home, scoring 11 goals while allowing 5 goals. River Plate is regarded as the best club in Argentina this year but they have not shown it on the pitch this season as they did lose some key talent in the transfer windows going back to last year. They are going up against Boca Juniors in the 1st round and that is going to be a very tough rivalry match for them. Normally they would have the advantage being at home, but all of these matches are played at neutral locations and that is going to be a big blow for River Plate who have a very strong home advantage in one of the most intimidating stadiums in all of Argentina. Without their home advantage, they are going to struggle more as they were the team that finished with the most draws out of all 8 teams that made the playoffs, and that is going to be for trouble for them since this is a competition where the matches get decided in penalties if still tied after 90 mins, and once a match gets to penalties, anything can really happen. Boca Juniors is not going to go down easy in the Superclasico and even if River Plate gets through, they still have a very tough road to the finals with the winner of Estudiantes/Barracas Central in their way. River Plate has played much better coming into the playoffs, but even in their last match they fell behind 1-0 by halftime against a much weaker team and were looking at missing the playoffs altogether. River Plate has a very tough road to the finals and with the way they have been drawing so many matches this season, there is no value in them at this price as they could easily draw their way out of this tournament through penalties.
Godoy Cruz +400: Godoy Cruz is coming into the playoffs as the club with the next best chance at winning according to the oddsmakers. They finished the regular season in 1st place of Group B with 29 points from a 9-2-3 record overall. They scored 16 goals in their 14 matches while allowing 6 goals in those, making them the team with the best defense in the competition all season. They were 4-2-1 at home, scoring 7 goals in those while allowing 3 goals, and they were 5-0-2 away from home, scoring 9 goals in those while allowing 3 goals. Godoy Cruz not only finished with the best defense as they conceded the least number of goals, but they also had the most wins of all 8 teams that made the playoffs with 9 as well as boasting the best away record which will be key in a tournament like this played at neutral locations. They had the most points of all 8 teams as well and only lost 3 matches, 1 of those losses coming in their last match which was completely meaningless as they had a 5 point lead over 2nd place going into it. Godoy Cruz will be going up against Velez Sarsfield in the 1st round and Velez is a team that can certainly match Godoy Cruz to a point with their defense, but Godoy Cruz still has the better defense as well as the better attack which will help them get through that tie. They would go up against the winner of Argentinos Juniors/Defensa y Justicia in the next round if they get through and they have a good chance at getting through either side. Defensa is the weakest team overall of the 8 in the playoffs so they will not pose much of a threat. Argentinos Juniors would be a stronger opponent as they have a very potent attack, but Godoy Cruz has the kind of defense to keep their attack at bay and Argentinos Juniors also had the worst away record of the 8 teams that made the playoffs, conceding a lot of goals away from home. Godoy Cruz has a very nice road to the finals and with no home advantage coming into play as well as their defense playing so well, Godoy Cruz could very well cap off their fantastic regular season with the title as well. Godoy Cruz has the easier road to the finals and they have the defense to keep them in any match, they have a lot of value to win the title at this price.
Boca Juniors +600: Boca Juniors is coming into the playoffs as the club with the next best chance at winning according to the oddsmakers. They finished the regular season in 4th place of Group B with 25 points from a 7-4-3 record overall. They scored 20 goals in their 14 matches while allowing 12 goals in those. They were 5-2-0 at home, scoring 13 goals in those while allowing 6 goals, and they were 2-2-3 away from home, scoring 7 goals in those while allowing 6 goals. Boca Juniors barely made the playoffs as they needed to win their final match of the season against Godoy Cruz and did so, but they only won that match 1-0 while up a man and it was a match they were fortunate that Godoy Cruz did not need at all or else that result could have been very different and Boca would be looking in from the outside. They were not a very strong club this season either as most of their success came at home while they actually had the 2nd worst away record of the 8 teams that made the playoffs, being the worst of the 4 in their group. Playing these matches at neutral locations will not help them out as they really relied on their home advantage to win matches, and they also have a very tough road to the finals. They are going up against a River Plate club in the 1st round that is arguably the best club in Argentina despite not being as talented as they were last season, and that is a big rivalry match as well so it will be very intense and take a lot out of them if they get through. If they do get through to the semi-finals, they will have to face the winner of Estudiantes/Barracas Central and those will not be easy matches for them, especially the potential match against Estudiantes. Boca Juniors has really been lacking in talent over the last year and there is not much value in them to win at this price considering how they have been so bad away from home and have a very tough road to the finals, including starting the playoffs with one of the toughest opponents in the competition. Boca Juniors is not going to be the team that claims the title.
Estudiantes +600: Estudiantes is coming into the playoffs as the club with the next best chance at winning according to the oddsmakers. They finished in 2nd place of Group B with 27 points from an 8-3-3 record overall. They scored 19 goals in their 14 matches while allowing 9 goals in those. They were 5-1-1 at home, scoring 12 goals in those while allowing 2 goals, and they were 3-2-2 away from home, scoring 7 goals in those while allowing 7 goals. Estudiantes has been another club that has struggled a lot away from home this season, but they do have a very good defense that conceded the 2nd least number of goals of the 8 teams that made the playoffs. Their away form has not been great but they do have the great defense going for them as well as having a much easier road to the finals. They are going up against Barracas Central in the 1st round and normally Barracas Central would be no push over as they were very good this season, but this is also a matchup that Estudiantes has dominated in whether being at home or away. They will be able to dispose of Barracas Central quite easily and in the next round will be the winner of River Plate/Boca Juniors waiting for them. Either one of those opponents would be a tough matchup normally, but Estudiantes is one of the better clubs in Argentina themselves and they already have a win over Boca Juniors during the regular season just a few weeks ago. They did lose their last match against River Plate in the Supercopa earlier this season, but they lost 2-1 after leading for 80 mins, River Plate scoring their 2 goals in the final 10 mins. Estudiantes may have collapsed late in that match, but River Plate is a team they know how to play and they are not going to be intimidated going up against them, especially at a neutral location. Of all the teams on that side of the bracket, Estudiantes really does have the best chance at getting through all of those tough teams with their great defense and they have a lot of value to win at this price.
Velez Sarsfield +700: Velez Sarsfield is coming into the playoffs as the club with the next best chance at winning according to the oddsmakers. They finished the regular season in 4th place of Group A with 25 points from a 7-4-3 record overall. They scored 14 goals in their 14 matches while allowing 13 goals in those. They were 4-2-1 at home, scoring 8 goals in those while allowing 4 goals, and they were 3-2-2 away from home, scoring 6 goals in those while allowing 9 goals. They were another club that needed to win their final match of the season just to have a chance at making the playoffs and fortunately for them, things fell into place their way, but they also won a very slim 1-0 match against a newly promoted side to get here which they were lucky to hang onto. They did not have a good goal differential at +1 as they were very mediocre on both defense and with their attack, but they also struggled to win matches away from home which will be key in this tournament. They are going up against Godoy Cruz in the 1st round in what will likely be a more defensive match considering these two styles, but Godoy Cruz does have the better attack, especially away from home, and that is going to be the difference in that 1st round. If they do get through, they would face the winner of Argentinos Juniors/Defensa y Justicia and Defensa is a club they might be able to take down, but it is also more unlikely that Defensa gets through which would leave them facing Argentinos and that would be a very bad matchup for them with that potent Argentinos Juniors attack. Velez does have a path to the finals here if they play very well defensively throughout the playoffs, but the margin for error will be very low and with their weaker attack, any 1 mistake could be very costly. Velez Sarsfield does not have much of a chance to even get to the finals and if they did, they would surely lose to a much better club from the other side of the bracket.
Argentinos Juniors +700: Argentinos Juniors is coming into the playoffs as the club with the next best chance at winning according to the oddsmakers. They finished the regular season in 2nd place of Group A with 26 points from a 7-5-2 record overall. They scored 25 goals in their 14 matches while allowing 14 goals in those. They were 6-1-0 at home, scoring 19 goals in those while allowing 7 goals, and they were 1-4-2 away from home, scoring 6 goals in those while allowing 7 goals. Argentinos Juniors finished the regular season with the 2nd best attack as they scored 1 less goal than River Plate, but they also had the 2nd worst defense of the 8 teams that made the playoffs. They also had the 2nd most draws with 5 and 4 of those draws came away from home as they had the worst away record of all 8 teams that made the playoffs. Even their attack was much better at home as they had a -1 goal differential and that is going to be a big problem in this competition where they will not have home advantage. Argentinos Juniors is going up against Defensa y Justicia in the 1st round and they will likely get through Defensa as they have a very potent attack to bail themselves out of trouble, but that potent attack will only take them so far and they simply do not have the defense needed to go deep in this tournament. They have also drawn a lot away from home so they could get through the tougher matches with draws, but then they leave their fate in the hands of penalties which, once they get there, anything could really happen. Argentinos Juniors is a very intriguing team with that strong attack, but they are going to end up with a much better defensive opponent in the next round whether it be Godoy Cruz or Velez Sarsfield, and if they even manage to get by that round, there will be a much stronger team waiting in the finals that they will not be able to handle without the home environment to back them up. Argentinos Juniors does not have a real shot at winning this title.
Barracas Central +1000: Barracas Central is coming into the playoffs as the club with the next best chance at winning according to the oddsmakers. They finished the regular season in 3rd place of Group A with 26 points from a 7-5-2 record overall. They scored 20 goals in their 14 matches while allowing 15 goals in those. They were 4-2-1 at home, scoring 11 goals in those while allowing 8 goals, and they were 3-3-1 away from home, scoring 9 goals in those while allowing 7 goals. Barracas Central does not have a great chance at going deep into these playoffs. They finished with the worst defense of the 8 teams that made the playoffs and they have one of the toughest roads to the finals. They are going up against Estudiantes in the 1st round and that is a team they have had no success against in recent matches with a lot of blowout losses. They are not going to make it past them in the 1st round but even if they did, they would still have to play the winner of River Plate/Boca Juniors in the next round which are both clubs they have struggled against as well. Barracas Central had a great season but the draw in these playoffs is not on their side and they do not have the defense to go deep either. There is no value in Barracas Central to win at this price.
Defensa y Justicia +1000: Defensa y Justicia is coming into the playoffs as the club with the next best chance at winning according to the oddsmakers. They finished the regular season in 3rd place of Group B with 26 points from a 7-5-2 record overall. They scored 17 goals in their 14 matches while allowing 13 goals in those. They were 4-2-1 at home, scoring 9 goals in those while allowing 7 goals, and they were 3-3-1 away from home, scoring 8 goals in those while allowing 6 goals. Defensa y Justicia may have finished in 3rd place in their group but they are by far the weakest team of the 8 due to their mediocrity. They were much better at home while not so great in their away matches, and they only had a +4 goal differential as the number of goals they scored this season is on the lower end of the 8 teams that made the playoffs, but the goals they have allowed is on the higher end. They are going up against Argentinos Juniors in the 1st round and that is not going to be a team they get by as they do not have the defense to keep Argentinos out of their net, nor do they have the attack to keep up with the goals Argentinos can score. Defensa y Justicia does not have a good enough team overall to make a deep run in these playoffs and there is no value in them to win at this price.
RecommendationThere are a few teams that have the potential of making deep runs in these playoffs but of the 8 teams that made it, there is 1 team on each side of the bracket that has some glaring value here. Estudiantes at +600 has a lot of value as they are on the stronger side of the bracket, but they have the weakest opponent of the 4 teams in Round 1 on that side and they have the quality to take on whoever wins that match between 2 Argentine giants. Godoy Cruz at +400 has a lot of value on the other side of the bracket as they have the much weaker path to the finals and they are the strongest team on that side with the way they performed during the season, especially on defense and away from home. Estudiantes at +600 and Godoy Cruz at +400 are the 2 clubs with the most value to win this tournament with a chance that both end up in the final as well. It will be a Godoy Cruz vs Estudiantes final this season with the likely winner being Estudiantes claiming the title this season.
Read more
