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NFL Daily Fantasy PIcks

   by ASA - 10/03/2014

ASA's NFL Daily Fantasy Picks



American Sports Analysts



Our NFL fantasy rankings are built from a number of factors. Depending on the website you're using, our projections will almost always accurately represent where the player will be priced. Price is a factor, along with: site of the game, weather, Vegas' spread & total, defensive opponent & scheme, recent performance & consistency trends, recent matchups against opponent, injury updates, and situation analysis.





We categorize our NFL players into three categories as follows:

Pay Top Dollar: Usually consists of one of the top 10-15 listed players in positional category

Value Players: Moderately-priced options

Premium ROI: Overlooked options that you can get at a low price

Potential Bust: A player that probably isn't worth the price





Last Week's Fantasy NFL Recap:

QB: We cashed in on all of our QB selections as GB Rodgers, Dallas’ Romo, & TB’s Glennon each exceeded our expectations. We were wrong on our “potential bust” as Indy’s Andrew Luck had a monster performance.



RB: Our Top Dollar RB, Matt Forte, tallied 171 total yards but was held out of the endzone against the Packers. Our Premium ROI selection, Trent Richardson, had 100 total yards and 1 TD. We were right to recommend staying far away from LeSean McCoy, who had just 17 rush yards.



WR: Antonio Brown & Steve Smith Sr. were our top two rated players at the position and they had two of the top games of the week from the WR position.



TE: If you paid the price for Jimmy Graham, you were rewarded with 86 yards and a TD. We also recommended picking up one of Indy’s TE’s – Fleener or Allen - for a low-price. They combined for 64 rec yds and 2 TD.





Onto this weekend's selections...





Quarterbacks



Pay Top Dollar



Drew Brees - Saints

New Orleans (-10, 48) vs. Tampa Bay



Brees has always been better when playing at home at the Superdome. Last year he had 27 TD and just 3 INT in 8 home games compared to 12 TD and 9 INT on the road. This season he's completing 77.1% at home with 2 TD and 0 INT compared to 69.8% with 5 TD and 3 INT away. The Saints are in must-win mode and Tampa Bay has not played well defensively. Expect Brees and the Saints to have a huge day on Sunday.



Value Player



Ben Roethlisberger - Steelers

Pittsburgh (-6, 47.5) @ Jacksonville



This Steelers offense is ranked 8th in pass YPG behind Roethlisberger and this strong WR corps. Roethlisberger had a huge game last week as he threw for 314 yards and 3 TD in a loss to Tampa Bay and we expect him to continue his hot streak against the Jaguars on Sunday. The Jags rank dead last against the pass this season, allowing 320.8 YPG with 11 TD and only 1 INT. Pitt will be excited to bounce back after a defeat and Jacksonville will be hapless against this passing attack.



Premium ROI



Philip Rivers - Chargers

San Diego (-6.5, 43.5) vs. NY Jets



Rivers is coming at a relatively low price this week despite being one of the hottest quarterbacks and he faces a Jets secondary that is banged up. He has 9 TD to just 1 INT this season and leads the NFL's 5th best passing offense. San Diego ranks 31st in rush YPG so Rivers has had to be accurate & effective through the air. NYJ is No. 1 in the NFL at stopping the run so expect that trend to continue Sunday as Rivers will have to have a big day.



Potential Bust



Russell Wilson - Seahawks

Seattle (-7.5, 45) @ Washington



Russell Wilson, much like Drew Brees, is a terrific home QB whose stats dip when playing on the road. In a little over two years of work, Wilson has 35 TD & 8 INT at home and 23 TD & 12 INT on the road. He's traveling all the way to the east coast on Sunday to face this Washington defense that has a knack for getting at the opposing QB (11 sacks so far this season, 5th in the NFL). The Seahawks will look to utilize RB Lynch more in this game to control the clock and wear down the Washington defense. Look for Wilson to have a quiet day.



Running Backs



Pay Top Dollar



DeMarco Murray - Cowboys

Dallas (-6.5, 47) vs. Houston



Continue to ride Murray here as he leads the NFL in rush yards and rush TD. He has over 100 yards and at least 1 TD in each of Dallas' first four games and he'll match those stats Sunday against Houston's 24th ranked rush defense. Despite possessing the most feared defender in the NFL (some analysts say best ever?) - JJ Watt - the Texans are soft against the run as they allow 130.5 rush YPG on 5.0 YPC.



Value Player



Andre Ellington - Cardinals

Arizona (+7.5, 47.5) @ Denver



The recipe for beating the Broncos is a strong rushing attack to eat away at the clock teamed with a stout defense. We know that Arizona's defense is up to the task, and we're banking on Ellington to have a big day on the ground. Denver's defense has had the fifth fewest rush attempts against it and, as a result, ranks 12th against the run. Arizona will again start backup QB Drew Stanton, so a successful running game will be necessary on Sunday. Ellington will receive a heavy workload here and we expect solid results.



Premium ROI



Terrance West - Browns

Cleveland (+2, 44) @ Tennessee



Since starter Ben Tate went down with a knee injury in week one, the rookie West has taken advantage of the opportunity with 204 rushing yards and two scores on 4.3 YPC. Cleveland boasts one of the top offensive lines in the NFL and they pave the way for the 10th ranked rush offense in the NFL. West and this offense should see a share of big runs against this Tennessee front that ranks 22nd against the run (122 YPG allowed, 5 TD).



Potential Bust



Montee Ball - Broncos

Denver (-7.5, 47.5) vs. Arizona



Ball has been one of the most disappointing fantasy players so far this season. He was supposed to take over for the departed Knowshon Moreno, who had a huge year in Denver in 2013. Instead Ball has seen limited success with just 165 rush yards on 3.4 YPC and 1 TD. He'll have tough sledding yet again against this Arizona defense that surrenders just 71.7 YPC on 2.9 YPC.



Wide Receivers



Pay Top Dollar



Antonio Brown - Steelers

Pittsburgh (-6, 47.5) @ Jacksonville



We expect this 8th ranked Steelers pass offense to have a huge day against the Jags, who rank dead last against the pass. Jacksonville is allowing 320.8 YPG with 11 TD and only 1 INT. Brown is tied for 2nd in the NFL in receptions (29), 4th in yards (427), and tied for 2nd in TD (5). He has exceeded 90 yards in every game this season and he'll have another big game against this porous Jags secondary.



Value Player



Keenan Allen - Chargers

San Diego (-6.5, 43.5) vs. NY Jets



Allen finally had a breakout game last week against Jacksonville after a slow start to 2014. He recorded 10 catches for 135 yards in SD's blowout win. Don't expect to see SD's rush offense (31st) see any room to run against NYJ rush defense (1st) so Rivers will have to air it out. Allen will continue his recent hot streak against this suspect NYJ secondary.



Premium ROI



Terrance Williams - Cowboys

Dallas (-6.5, 47) vs. Houston



It's Williams, not star Dez Bryant, who leads the Dallas Cowboys in TD receptions so far this season. The 2nd year pro has a knack for finding the end zone as he already has 4 TD in 2014 after catching 5 in his rookie campaign. Defenses pay most of their attention to Bryant and RB Murray, so Williams finds himself in a lot of favorable matchups.



Potential Bust



Demaryius Thomas - Broncos

Denver (-7.5, 47.5) vs. Arizona



Thomas is off to a slow start in 2014 with just 13 receptions for 141 yards and 1 TD. He has the tough task of facing arguably the top cover corner in the NFL this week as Patrick Peterson will shadow him all over the field. Opposing No. 1 receivers have caught just 16 passes for 133 yards with 0 TD vs. the Cardinals after three games.



Tight Ends



Pay Top Dollar



Jimmy Graham - Saints

New Orleans (-10, 48) vs. Tampa Bay



We mentioned above how Drew Brees has 29 TD and just 3 INT in his last nine home games. This Saints offense plays much better when its at home and Jimmy Graham should continue his domination of Tampa Bay this week. He had 15 catches for 250 yards and 2 scores in two games against TB last year.



Value Player



Antonio Gates - Chargers

San Diego (-6.5, 43.5) vs. NY Jets



Yet another Chargers player on our list for the week. It's pretty simple: San Diego will have a tough time running against the Jets, so Rivers will have to air it out more. Gates is Rivers' favorite red zone target and he should see a few RZ opportunities this weekend. The Jets have allowed 3 TD to opposing TE the last two weeks and are 18th in fantasy points allowed to opposing TE this season.



Premium ROI



Owen Daniels - Ravens

Baltimore (+3.5, 49) @ Indianapolis



The Colts have been burned by tight ends so far this season, ranking 29th in fantasy points allowed to opposing TE. They've already allowed four TD to opposing TE and Daniels has been a red zone nightmare for opposing defenses throughout his career.



Potential Bust



Larry Donnell - Giants

NY Giants (-4, 50.5) vs. Atlanta



Donnell's price sky-rocketed after last week's three-touchdown performance against Washington. He'll be one of the main focuses of Atlanta defensive gameplan this week and he won't be much of a factor against this Atlanta D. The Falcons rank 10th in fantasy points allowed to opposing TE this season and they haven't allowed a TE touchdown through four weeks.

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