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College Football Daily Fantasy Football Picks

   by ASA - 10/03/2014

ASA's College Football Daily Fantasy Picks



American Sports Analysts



Our CFB fantasy rankings are built from a number of factors. Depending on the website you're using, our projections will almost always accurately represent where the player will be priced. Price is a factor, along with: site of the game, weather, Vegas' spread & total, defensive opponent & scheme, recent performance & consistency trends, recent matchups against opponent, injury updates, and situation analysis.





We categorize our players into three categories as follows:

Pay Top Dollar: Usually consists of one of the top 10-15 listed players in positional category

Value Players: Moderately-priced options

Premium ROI: Overlooked options that you can get at a low price





Last Week's Fantasy CFB Recap:

- ODU’s Taylor Heinicke, our “Top Dollar” quarterback, tossed for 362 yards and 4 TD. Our “Value” QB outdid Heinicke’s performance on Saturday as Cal’s Jared Goff threw for 449 yards and 7 touchdowns!



- Ameer Abdullah rushed for 208 yards and 3 TD in Nebraska’s win on Saturday. That marks the 2nd straight week our “Top Dollar” RB rushed for 200+ yards and 2+ TD’s.



- Arkansas' RB Collins rushed for 131 and 1 TD as our value RB.



- Baylor WR Goodley (114 rec yds) didn’t notch the TD that we expected, but still had a solid outing. Old Dominion WR Vaughan (105 yds, 3 TD), and Ole Miss WR Treadwell (123 rec yds, 2 TD) each had HUGE games as our other WR selections.



- Where we were wrong: Florida State TE O’Leary (0 rec) did not live up to our “Top Dollar” billing for tight ends. Our Premium ROI QB McEvoy (160 pass yds, 1 TD) and RB Clement (105 total yds, 0 TD) didn’t have the performance we expected as low-priced options.





Onto this weekend's selections...



Quarterbacks



Pay Top Dollar



Shane Carden – East Carolina

East Carolina (-41, 58.5) vs. SMU – 11:00 AM CST



Carden already has 11 TD & just 3 INT with 62.4% completions this season. He has a stable of capable receivers, including two with 29-receptions each. Saturday he faces one of the worst programs in the nation in the SMU Mustangs. SMU has lost all four of its games by a combined score of 202-12. Defensively the Mustangs are 127th in yards allowed and 128th in points allowed. Carden comes a bit cheaper than some of the bigger name QB’s this week, but still should put together a big day against the hapless Mustangs.



Value Player



Sefo Liufau – Colorado

Colorado (+6.5, 58) vs. Oregon State – 3:00 PM CST



Liufau is completing 65.3% of his passes with 17 TD & just 6 INT this season. He has the 2nd most pass attempts in the NCAA behind only Connor Halliday of Washington State. This Saturday Colorado plays a revenger against Oregon State after losing to OSU by 27 points last year. The Beavers are in a bad spot. They were blown out by USC last week in a huge game and now they have to travel again in a letdown spot against the motivated Buffalos – who are off of a close loss to Arizona. Liufau will have another heavy workload against OSU and we expect big numbers from the Colorado QB.



Premium ROI



Brad Kaaya – Miami FL

Miami (+1.5, 56.5) @ Georgia Tech - 6:30 PM CST



Kaaya, the freshman, is maturing by the week. After throwing 3 TD and 4 INT in the first two games of the season, he has bounced back with 9 TD and 3 INT in the last three games. This week he's taking on a GT defense that hasn’t been great against the pass. GT allowed a combined 41-of-61 (67%) to the less-than-stellar passing attacks of Virginia Tech & Georgia Southern the last two games. In 2012 & 2013 matchups, these two combined for 78 & 75 total points, respectively. This will be another high-scoring affair and Kaaya should have solid numbers.



Running Backs



Pay Top Dollar



Melvin Gordon – Wisconsin

Wisconsin (-8, 47.5) @ Northwestern - 2:30 PM CST



Don't pay too much attention to the fact that Northwestern allowed just 50 rush yards to PSU last week; PSU ranks 117th in rush YPG and Wisconsin's ground game is a completely different animal. Melvin Gordon and this offense continues to pile up the rushing yards. Wisconsin has outrushed its last two opponents by 773 yards and Gordon has 434 rush yards and 7 TD on 9.6 YPC in the last two games. He had 172 yards and 1 TD against Northwestern last season and we expect a similar output on Saturday.



Value Player



Jeremy Langford – Michigan State

Michigan State (-7, 59.5) vs. Nebraska - 7:00 PM CST



Langford's stats won’t pop out at you so far this season (340 rush yds, 5.5 YPC, 3 TD) mainly because he's had such a small workload (62 carries). He hasn’t played in the 2nd half of most games because MSU has been winning by so many points. He received his largest workload (24 carries) in a game against Oregon earlier in the year. This game against Nebraska will be a similar dog fight and we expect Langford to be the workhorse back similar to last year against the Huskers when he rushed for 151 yards and 3 scores.



Premium ROI



Derrick Henry - Alabama

Alabama (-4.5, 52.5) @ Mississippi - 2:30 PM CST



Henry and fellow RB TJ Yeldon have been splitting carries for Alabama this season, but it has been Henry seeing better results. As of late, in the last two games Yeldon has 115 yards on 27 carries (4.3 YPC) with 0 TD compared to Henry's 184 yards on 31 carries (5.9 YPC) and 1 TD. The 6'3", 241 lb running back is an absolute load who is surprisingly light on his feet for his size. He wears out opposing defenses and we expect him to have a big day against Ole Miss. 'Bama rushed for 254 yards on 40 carries last year against Ole Miss and they should see similar success on Saturday.



Wide Receivers



Pay Top Dollar



Nelson Spruce - Colorado

Colorado (+6.5, 58) vs. Oregon State – 3:00 PM CST



Spruce leads the NCAA in receptions, receiving yards, and receiving TD's. He is QB Liufau's favorite target and he is off of a game where he amassed 19 catches for 179 yards and 3 TD. He has scored in every game this season so its a good bet that he'll reach the end zone at least once against OSU this weekend. Oregon State allowed USC QB Kessler to complete 24-of-32 passes for 261 yards and 2 scores last week. Colorado QB Liufau will see similar success against OSU on Saturday.



Value Player



KD Cannon - Baylor

Baylor (-14.5, 58.5) @ Texas - 2:30 PM CST



Cannon leads the Baylor Bears in receptions, receiving yards, and touchdowns along with an astonishing 22.6 YPC average. Star WR Antwan Goodley returned to the field last week so he's expected to take some looks away from Cannon, although Cannon still had nine catches to Goodley's six last week. Baylor boasts the nation's 4th ranked passing offense and Bryce Petty does an excellent job of distributing the ball. Texas does a solid job of stopping the run, so Baylor will depend on Petty's arm and his group of receivers to put up yards. Cannon is a strong mid-priced option here.



Premium ROI



Stefon Diggs - Maryland

Maryland (+7, 59.5) vs. Ohio State - 11:00 AM CST



Diggs leads the Terps in receptions (29) & receiving yards (398) and hasn't had a game with fewer than five receptions so far this season. He is off of a solid performance in a win over Indiana (6 rec, 112 yards, 1 TD) and he should get even more opportunities to put up big numbers against this Ohio State defense that has struggled mightily against the pass. Last week they allowed Cincy QB Kiel to complete 21-of-32 for 352 yards with 4 TD. Starting QB C.J. Brown is expected to play (wrist) and Diggs will have a big game.



Tight Ends



Pay Top Dollar



Kennard Backman - UAB

UAB (+9, 72) vs. Western Kentucky



The athletic Backman leads the Blazers in receptions with 17 and receiving TD with 2. The Blazers don't exactly have a formidable passing attack, but they'll have to put up points to stay in the game against this high-powered Western Kentucky offense. They'll be involved in a shootout and Backman is UAB's most reliable receiving option.



Value Player



Sam Arneson - Wisconsin

Wisconsin (-8, 47.5) @ Northwestern - 2:30 PM CST



Arneson has nine catches this season for 156 yards (17.3 yards per reception) and two touchdowns (1st on the team). He has scored both of those TD's in the last two games as he and emerging QB McEvoy have developed a nice rapport together. Northwestern ranks 79th against the pass this season and Arneson should have a good day and find the end zone at least once in Evanston this Saturday.



Premium ROI



Ben Koyack - Notre Dame

Notre Dame (+2.5) vs. Stanford - 2:30 PM CST



Koyack has been tabbed as a future NFL TE prospect and he has shown flashes of greatness. He has 13 receptions for 113 yards but has yet to reach the end zone this season. Yards will come at a premium this week against Stanford's defense, but we trust QB Golson to move the ball well. Expect Golson to find his 6'5" target in red zone situations and for Koyack to end his TD drought. He's a solid low-priced option this week.

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