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Deutsche Bank Championship Preview
by Matt Fargo - 08/27/2014
Round one of the FedEx Cup Playoffs is history as Hunter Mahan carded a final round 65 to win by two shots over Stuart Appleby, Cameron Tringale and Jason Day to take the Barclays. Mahan moved from 62nd place to 1st place in the FedEx Cup Standings, leading Rory McIlroy by 466 points. It was Mahan's first win of the season and his sixth top ten overall. The field has been cut to the top 100 for the second leg of the playoffs taking place this week with only 94 players teeing it up this weekend.
The Deutsche Bank Championship takes center stage from TPC Boston in Norton, Massachusetts on this holiday weekend event that runs from Friday to Monday. TPC Boston has been one of the easier stops in recent years and there is no reason to think it will be any different this week. The 7,216-yard, par 71 layout is fairly wide open but it is the large greens that are pretty straight forward that contribute to the low scores. Ideal weather conditions will only help.
Last year, TPC Boston had a scoring average of 69.21 which was an all time tournament low and it was the second easiest par 71 on tour. 2013 winner Henrik Stenson finished at -22 and 34 of the 76 players making the cut finished double-digits under par. Since its inception in 2003, every winner here has carded a -14 or lower with five of those resulting in -20 or lower. Basically, this is a birdie paradise so it comes down to the best ball strikers and which ever putters are hot.
As mentioned we are down to the top 100 in the FedEx Cup standings with the top 70 advancing to the third round of the playoffs which take place next week at the BMW Championship. Current strong form is typically a big factor when looking for a winner and we will go along with that same logic this week although past course success and good iron play also needs to be factored in. There are no tricks here, just a course ripe for the taking.
Jason Day (+1,300) came close again last week and despite the short price yet again, we are sticking with him. He finished T2 at the Barclays which was his sixth top five of the season. He has done well here as he is the leading money leader over the last five years of all players that have not won. That is due to a T3 in 2011 and a T2 in 2010 along with two other top 20's.
Keegan Bradley (+4,000) has made the cut in all three of his appearances here including a T16 last year and a T13 in 2012. This is a home game for him as he is a New Englander and he is the type of player that can play better with the home crowd behind him. He did not play well last week with a T53 but he does have four top fives this season including a runner-up at the Arnold Palmer Invitational.
Webb Simpson (+6,000) missed the cut last week but some of his best finishes this year have come after missing the weekend. He had a T3 at the FedEx St. Jude Classic after missing the cut at The Players and had a T5 at the Wyndham just two weeks ago after missing the cut at the PGA Championship. He has made the cut here the last three years including a win in 2011.
After two straight missed cuts, Charley Hoffman (+9,500) finished T30 last week at the Barclays and is sitting in 33rd place in the FedEx Cup Standings. He won here in 2010 and is second in earnings here over the last five years. He is one of only 10 players in the field that have played and made the cut in each of the last five years. Hoffman is seventh on tour in total birdies.
Luke Donald (+10,000) is not having a good season but this could be the place to right the ship. Since a solo second at the RBC Heritage in April, his best finish is a T38 and he is coming off a missed cut last week. However, he is third in earnings here over the last five years and he is another one of the 10 players in the field to make the cut each of the last five years.
Recommended Tournament Win Five Pack at the Deutsche Bank Championship (all for One Unit)
Jason Day (+1,300)
Keegan Bradley (+4,000)
Webb Simpson (+6,000)
Charley Hoffman (+9,500)
Luke Donald (+10,000)
2014 Record to date after 31 events: -57 Units
Sony Open in Hawaii -5 Units
Humana Challenge -5 Units
Farmers Insurance Open -5 Units
Waste Management Phoenix Open -5 Units
AT&T Pebble Beach National Pro-Am +22 Units
Northern Trust Open -5 Units
WGC - Accenture Match Play +23 Units
Honda Classic -5 Units
WGC-Cadillac Championship -5 Units
Valspar Championship -5 Units
Arnold Palmer Invitational -5 Units
Valero Texas Open -5 Units
Shell Houston Open -5 Units
The Masters -7 Units
Zurich Classic -5 Units
Wells Fargo Championship -5 Units
THE PLAYERS Championship -5 Units
HP Byron Nelson Championship -5 Units
Crowne Plaza Invitational -5 Units
Memorial Tournament -5 Units
FedEx St. Jude Classic -5 Units
U.S. Open -6 Units
Travelers Championship -5 Units
Quicken Loans National -5 Units
Greenbrier Classic -5 Units
John Deere Classic -5 Units
The Open Championship -5 Units
RBC Canadian Open -5 Units
WGC-Bridgestone Invitational -5 Units
PGA Championship -5 Units
The Barclays +36 Units