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NIT Tournament Breakdown

   by Al McMordie - 03/29/2014

The 2014 NIT Tournament is down to four teams, who will compete at Madison Square Garden in New York City for the Title, beginning on Tuesday: Clemson, SMU, Minnesota and Florida State. It should be a great Final Four, as three of the four #1 seeds are represented, with only the #3-seeded Tigers crashing the #1-seed party.

Let's take a look at how this Tourney has shaken out from a pointspread perspective.

We've had 28 games thus far, and favorites have gone 14-10-3 against the closing number, while home teams have gone 13-12-3 ATS. Of course, there won't be any home games left, as the Final Four is played at a neutral site. But within our 14-10-3 statistic which relates to NIT Tourney favorites, it should be noted that all the profit is when the line has been priced from -1 to -9.5 points. Those single-digit favorites are 14-6-2 ATS this Tourney, while double-digit chalk has gone 0-4-1. That doesn't bode well for Clemson, which has been installed as a 3-point underdog vs. top-seeded SMU.

Teams off pointspread wins have gone 3-4 ATS vs. foes off a pointspread loss, including 1-3 when dressed up as an underdog.

And teams off upset wins have gone 0-2 ATS vs. foes not off upset wins.

Looking back at the last eight years of the NIT Tourney also finds this trend: underdogs are a super 22-9 ATS from the quarter-final round forward. That would bode well for Clemson and (possibly) Minnesota, should it remain as an underdog.

I will release my NIT Tourney selections for the Final Four on Monday. Don't miss out.

Good luck, as always...Al McMordie.

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