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NBA and NCAA Basketball Trends
by Al McMordie - 01/31/2014
As we hit the end of January, it's worthwhile to take stock of the current season to see if there are any NBA or College Basketball trends worth following the rest of the year.
In College Basketball, favorites are slightly out-producing underdogs, with the chalk covering 1100 of the 2155 games this season. And double-digit favorites are doing better than single-digit favorites, as double-digit chalk is 391-338 ATS this year.
College basketball teams off upset wins are doing poorly, if installed as an underdog in their next game. They're just 102-128 ATS this year. Conversely, favorites off upset losses are earning a profit, as they're 129-112 ATS, including 72-52 if they were upset at home in their previous game.
Finally, NCAA home teams off a SU/ATS win are burying the bettors this season, if they're matched up against an opponent off a SU/ATS loss. They're just 73-103 ATS.
In the Pro ranks, dogs and favorites are roughly even, with the dogs barking slightly louder, with a 347-331 ATS record. But it's the road teams that are really churning a profit this season. They're 369-309 ATS, with both road favorites (120-98 ATS) and road underdogs (249-211 ATS) doing well. Digging further, we find that it's the road teams off a loss that are really performing the best. They're 196-147 ATS, including 59-33 ATS as chalk.
Another great NBA trend to look at this season is to take teams off a loss vs. teams off a win. By simply following that, one would be 182-154 on the year. But the road teams, again, are where the profit lies, as road teams off a loss are 109-71 ATS vs. home teams off wins, including 90-53 ATS when priced as a favorite (of any number), or an underdog of less than 10 points.
Finally, NBA double-revenging teams are a sweet 25-15 ATS this season, including 15-6 ATS vs. foes off a win, and 22-9 ATS if our revenger isn't playing its 3rd game in four nights.
Good luck, as always...Al McMordie.