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NFL 2013 -- Betting Trends

   by Al McMordie - 12/30/2013

With the final week of the NFL season in the books, it’s a good time to review this year’s data to see if there are any worthwhile trends that can point us toward some winners this post-season.

For the season, home teams were 132-118-6 ATS. As favorites, they were a profitable 89-72-4, while they burned money as underdogs, with a 43-46-2 record. In the first round of this year’s playoffs, there’s just one home underdog (Green Bay), and three favorites (Indianapolis, Philadelphia and Cincinnati).

Another trend this season is that NFL teams off home wins did extremely poorly on the road. They were 42-59-3 ATS (41.5%). This upcoming week, New Orleans and San Diego are both traveling after home wins.

Revenging teams also did very well at home, as they were 40-30 ATS this season. In the first round of the playoffs, Green Bay and Philadelphia are both playing with revenge from a loss sustained this year, or last season.

Finally, teams off SU/ATS wins were an awful 9-37 ATS vs. foes not off SU/ATS wins, if such foes also had a winning pointspread record on the season. This week, Indianapolis and Cincinnati would fall into that negative 9-37 ATS angle.

Good luck, as always…Al McMordie.

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