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Deutsche Bank Championship Preview and Picks
by Matt Fargo - 08/29/2013
Round one of the FedEx Cup Playoffs is history as Adam Scott carded a final round 66 to win by one shot over Tiger Woods, Graham DeLaet, Justin Rose and Gary Woodland to take the Barclays. Scott moved to second in the FedEx Cup Standings, trailing Tiger Woods by just 162 points. It was Scott's second win of the season and his third top five in his last four starts. The field has been cut to the top 100 for the second leg of the playoffs taking place this week.
The Deutsche Bank Championship takes center stage from TPC Boston in Norton, Massachusetts on this holiday weekend event that runs from Friday to Monday. TPC Boston has been one of the easier stops in recent years and there is no reason to think it will be any different this week. The 7,216-yard, par 71 layout is fairly wide open but it is the large greens that are pretty straight forward that contribute to the low scores. Ideal weather conditions will only help.
Last year, TPC Boston ranked 31st in difficulty with a scoring average of 70.647 and it was the fourth easiest par 71 on tour. 2012 winner Rory McIlroy finished at -20 and 50 of the 78 players making the cut were able to break par over the four days. Since its inception in 2003, every winner here has carded a -14 or lower with four of those resulting in -20 or lower. Basically, this is a birdie paradise so it comes down to the best ball strikers and which ever putter are hot.
As mentioned we are down to the top 100 in the FedEx Cup standings with the top 70 advancing to the third round of the playoffs which take place in two weeks at the BMW Championship. Current strong form is typically a big factor when looking for a winner and we will go along with that same logic this week although past course success and good iron play also needs to be factored in. There are no tricks here, just a course ripe for the taking.
Tiger Woods (+650) is the favorite but his back has to be a concern. It was just a spasm that affected him last Sunday but it forced him to withdraw from the Notah Begay charity event on Wednesday and while the Friday start will certainly help, there is too much concern and not enough value to consider him this week.
Jason Day (+1,800) opened with a Thursday 66 at the Barclays but played the rest of the tournament at three over to never make a move. Still, it was his ninth top 25 of the season and he has yet to miss a cut in 17 medal play events so he won't be leaving come Sunday. I have mentioned that he seems to be in contention in the big events and that has been the case here with a T3 in 2011 and a T2 in 2010.
Webb Simpson (+2,500) made an early tournament run for us last week but a Saturday 74 took him out of contention and he had to settle for a T15. He has been on a solid streak though as he has posted four straight top 25's and he is tied for 20th on tour in birdies made. He won this event in 2011 in a playoff over Chez Reavie and he then followed it up with a T18 last year.
Keegan Bradley (+3,000) will round out the three players on this week's card that we also took last week. A Friday 63 put him right in the mix at the Barclays but a four-over weekend left him with a T33 finish. Now he heads back home to New England where he will be a crowd favorite. He has not missed a cut in six straight stops with four resulting in top 20's including a T2. Finished T13 here last year.
Brandt Snedeker (+3,000) has fallen off the radar with two straight missed cuts following a T66 at the PGA Championship. This goes against the strong current form theory however if there is a place where he can break his slump, TPC Boston is it. Last year, he finished solo sixth, 2011 finished T3 and 2010 finished T5. He is considered one of the best putters on tour and if he gets hot, he will be right there.
With many big names playing, we get tons of value with the other guys including Graeme DeLaet (+6,000). He is coming off a T2 last week at the Barclays which came after two missed cuts so he could be getting hot at the right time. That was his sixth top ten of the season and while he missed the cut here last year, he is a much better player this year. His ranking of first in total driving and first in ball striking prove that.
Recommended Tournament Win Five Pack at the Deutsche Bank Championship (all for One Unit)
Jason Day (+1,800)
Webb Simpson (+2,500)
Keegan Bradley (+3,000)
Brandt Snedeker (+3,000)
Graeme DeLaet (+6,000)
2012 Record to date after 36 events: +51.6 Units
2013 Record to date after 32 events: -45.4 Units
Hyundai Tournament of Champions -5 Units
Sony Open in Hawaii -5 Units
Humana Challenge - 5 Units
Farmer Insurance Open +3.5 Units
Waste Management Phoenix Open +19 Units
AT&T Pebble Beach National Pro-Am -5 Units
Northern Trust Open -5 Units
WGC-Accenture Match Play Championship +25.66 units
The Honda Classic -5 Units
WGC-Cadillac Championship -5 Units
Tampa Bay Championship -5 Units
Arnold Palmer Invitational -1.5 Units
Shell Houston Open -5 Units
The Masters -8 Units
RBC Heritage +27 Units
Zurich Classic of New Orleans -5 Units
The Wells Fargo Championship -5 Units
THE PLAYERS Championship -5 Units
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Crowne Plaza Invitational at Colonial -5 Units
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AT&T National -5 Units
Greenbrier Classic -5 Units
John Deere Classic -5 Units
Open Championship -5 Units
RBC Canadian Open +10 Units
Bridgestone Invitational 0 Units
PGA Championship -5 Units
Barclays -5 Units