Get the best handicapping articles and gambling advice throughout the football, basketball and baseball seasons from the world's top sports handicappers, as well as from Bovada (Bodog) Sportsbook and Casino.

May 30 NBA Journal

   by Larry Ness - 05/30/2013

The Spurs are home resting, awaiting the start of the NBA Finals (Game 1 is June 6). San Antonio will meet the winner of the Indiana/Miami series, which resumes tonight at 8:30 ET in Miami, on TNT. The Pacers tied the series at two-all with a 99-92 win Tuesday night. Indiana got the home fans involved early by opening the game on an 11-0 run but the Heat never went away, despite not playing a very good game. In fact, the Heat took a 60-54 third quarter lead before the Pacers responded with a 10-0 run. Then in the 4th quarter, Miami again led 86-83 with about six minutes left, before the Pacers closed the game on a 16-6 run to win by seven points.

The Heat were just 1-of-9 from the floor in Game 4’s last five minutes. For the game, Indiana controlled the boards 49-30 and outscored Miami in the paint, 50-32. All five Indiana starters were in double digits with Hibbert leading the way (23 & 12). Stephenson, who had scored just 24 points in the first three games of the series (on 25% shooting), made 9-of-15 shots and scored 20 points. Hibbert, who averaged 11.9 & & 8.3 during the regular season (on 44.8% shooting), has averaged 22.8 & 12.0 on 54.1% shooting in this series. LBJ had 24-6-5 for the Heat (shot only 8-of-18), while Wade had 16 points on 5-of-25 shooting) and Bosh just seven points (1-of-6 from the floor).

It’s become a ‘broken record,’ but the Miami trio of Allen, Battier and Cole, continue to struggle badly. That group is a combined 16-of-62 (25.8%) from the floor this series, including 9-of-37 (24.3%) on threes. “Birdman” Andersen has been Miami’s ‘savior’ off the bench this postseason but in Game 4, after averaging 9.5 PPG (on 15-of-15 shooting!) with 4.5 RPG in 17 minutes of action over the previous four games, Andersen was scoreless in 19 minutes without attempting a shot (had two rebounds). Miami can count on LBJ but how about Wade (13.4 PPG the last 10 games) or Bosh?

Home teams have struggled in the conference finals, going 4-4 SU and a ‘money-burning’ 2-6 ATS. That may not bode well for Miami in this one, as the Heat are 5-2 SU but 2-5 ATS at home in the 2013 playoffs. Home teams are 46-29 (.613) this postseason but only 34-41 (45.3%) ATS, or minus-11.1 net games. Seven of the eight games in the conference finals have gone over and over bettors now lead 37-36-2, this postseason. Those following the Zig Zag theory are again doing no better than ‘treading water’ this postseason (nothing new there!), checking in at 31-30 or minus-2.0 net games. The Heat are favored tonight by 7 1/2 points and the total is 185 1/2.

Good luck...Larry

Bet on Sports-Join MyBookie.ag today!
Bet on Xbet
Bet on Sports-Join MyBookie.ag today!
Bet on Xbet

Follow BigAl on Twitter

Visit BigAl on Facebook

Football odds at Bovada (Bodog)
Pro football betting at Bovada (Bodog) Sportsbook!