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Playoff Journal - May 10

   by Larry Ness - 05/10/2013

NBA Playoff Journal (Friday, May 10)


Thursday was a rare day of rest for all teams this postseason. The 1st round saw two four game sweeps while the other six series all went at least six games. However, only Chicago/Brooklyn went seven games, with the Bulls winning that Game 7 on the road. Home teams finished the first round 29-16 SU (.644) but under .500 ATS at 22-23! Under bettors had a slight edge with the totals, as there were 21 overs, 23 unders and one push. Those following the Zig Zag theory went 16-21 ATS or minus-7.1 net games.


The second round (conference semifinals) began last Sunday and all series had completed the first set of two games, with the top-seeded teams playing each of the first two games at home, by Wednesday. However, home teams have not been good to a sports bettor’s ‘pocketbook’ in the second round, at least so far. Home teams went 4-4 SU but a money-burning 2-6 ATS. The NBA expanded its first-round series to seven games beginning back in the 2003 postseason and 2013 marks the very first time that all four conference semifinal series have been tied at one-all, since the expanded series went into effect. Over the previous 10 postseasons, there was only one year in which three of the four second round series were tied at one-all (that was in 2006) and in stark contrast, 2008’s second round saw 2-0 leads by all four of the top-seed teams (only time that’s happened since the change in 2003).


As the venues change for the next two games for all series, home teams are 33-20 SU (.623) but a poor 24-29 (45.3 percent ATS), which is minus-7.9 net games. After a 4-3-1 edge to over bettors in these last eight games, we have 25 overs, 26 unders and two pushes since the start of TY’s postseason. Those following the Zig Zag theory ‘got well’ in the four Game 2s, going a PERFECT 4-0 ATS. That follows a 5-3 ATS mark in 1st-round Game 2s, for a 9-3 mark. In all other games this postseason, “Zig-Zaggers” are 11-18 ATS, making it 20-21 for the postseason to-date, or minus-3.1 net games.


Miami visits Chicago tonight at 8:05 ET and San Antonio is in Oakland to take on the Warriors at 10:35 ET (both games on ESPN). The Heat are favored by eight points (total is 187 1/2) and the Warriors are favored by two points (total of 202 1/2). It can’t go unmentioned that the Warriors are a PERFECT 8-0 ATS this postseason (5-3 SU). On Saturday, it’s OKC at Memphis at 5:05 ET on ESPN, followed by the Knicks at the Pacers at 8:05 ET on ABC. Memphis is favored by five points (total is 186 1/2), while the Pacers are favored by four points (total is 183). Again, it can’t go unmentioned that after losing Game 1 at Staples Center 112-91 to the Clippers, the Grizzlies have covered SEVEN in a row (5-2 SU).


My next playoff journal will be Sunday at 12 noon ET.


Good luck...Larry

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