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NBA Total Wins
by ASA - 10/30/2012
The NBA season is here and so are ASA's Future bets for the 2012-13 season. We love several Total win wagers and have had great success with these early season bets in the past. After watching pre-season games, crunching numbers and running projections with our computer models we've come to the following conclusions.
Milwaukee Bucks OVER 37.5 WINS. The Bucks made some late season moves last year and brought in scoring guard Monte Ellis from Golden State and shipped out oft-injured center Andrew Bogut. Ellis helped the Bucks to a 10-11 straight up record over the last 21 games in Milwaukee while scoring 19.5 ppg and dishing out 4.5 assists. Overall the Bucks were 31-35 SU in the strike shortened season which translates to a 47% winning margin. If we project out that same winning margin (47%) in 2012-13 that puts the Bucks at 38.5 wins. Milwaukee's offense wasn't the problem last year as they were 5th in the NBA in scoring (99 ppg) but their defense was another matter as they were 22nd in points allowed per game (98.7 ppg). We feel the Bucks addressed that issue in the offseason with the addition of center Samuel Dalembert who brings a shot blocking presence in the front court. Dalembert averaged 1.7 blocks per game a year ago to go along with 7 rebounds per game. Another important piece to the Bucks puzzle was the resigning of Ersan Ilyasova who averaged 13 ppg and 8.8 rebounds per game last season. The straw that stirs the drink in Milwaukee remains Brandon Jennings. While Jennings isn't one of our favorite players (poor shot selection and doesn't distribute like a point guard should) he still is a proven scorer which is evidenced by his team leading 19.1 ppg last season. In other words we firmly believe the Bucks roster is better overall, making them a better team this season AND they play in a weak division. Let's examine further: Chicago was 50-16 last year (76%) but could be without Derrick Rose for an extended period of time so they clearly won't be as good as they were a year ago. Indiana was 42-24 and has a great young nucleus so we don't see a drop off in 2013. Detroit has not gotten any better and should win about 38% of their games as they did last year. The Cavaliers will be better with Kyrie Irving back in the lineup but how much will they improve on their 21-45 (32%) record? We feel the Bucks are a solid playoff contender and expect them to finish with a .500 or better record.
Brooklyn Nets UNDER 45 WINS. The former New Jersey Nets will be improved this season but how can't they be better than last year's edition that won just 33% of their games or a 22-44 record. Yes, they are playing in a great new stadium and have new uniforms but as my dad would say "you can paint a turd to make it look nice but underneath it's still crap"! The Nets play in the tough Atlantic division with Boston, New York, Philadelphia and Toronto. In fact, let's start there. All four of those aforementioned teams had a better winning percentage last season with the Celtics at 59% (39-27 SU), Knicks 55% (36-30 SU), 76ers 53% (35-31 SU) and Toronto 35% (23-43 SU). For the Nets to win 45 games this season they'll have to win 55% of their 82 game schedule. It's not going to happen. Brooklyn was 3rd to last in the NBA in point differential scoring at minus -6 points per game (last in the Atlantic) and 2nd to last in defensive efficiency ratings at 109.6 (last in the Atlantic). The Nets did bring in former Hawk Joe Johnson which is an upgrade but Joe's statistics have been on the decline since 2006 when he had his best season. In 2006 Johnson averaged 25 ppg but that number dipped to 18.8 ppg last year. He's averaging less rebounds, steals and assists in that same time too. Center Brooks Lopez is an injury waiting to happen that managed to play only 5 games last season. The other big signee the Nets brought in was Gerald Wallace who is a shadow of the player he was 2 years ago. Brooklyn has been over-hyped and is in the public eye so their win total is inflated higher than it should be. BUY UNDER!
Be sure to check this site out daily for NBA winners from ASA. Our highly acclaimed Math Model , analytical approach, computer simulator and overall handicapping knowledge has made us one of the best in the Biz when it comes to basketball and we'd love the opportunity to prove it to you this season.
Best of luck with all your wagers this hoops season.