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Betting Early Season NCAA Football Games
by Wayne Root - 08/30/2012
WHAT YOU SAW LAST YEAR MAY NOT BE THERE THIS YEAR
Last year's team is NOT this year's team due to the normal 30% departure of seniors and others choosing to move on. One key is to find out for these early season games the number of returning starters. If 18 of the 22 players are returning, that is fantastic. On average, the return of 13 to 15 is somewhat normal. But remember, there were some bad teams with bad players on them so their returning starters may not be of value. Additionally, the number of returning letterman is important since those players are the ones to replace the outgoing starters from a year ago. It's easier to predict a team that will be down a bit due to graduation losses than it is to predict a team that will improve when they haven't played a game as a unit at the beginning of the season.
REPLACING KEY POSITIONS
How does a Stanford replace and reload with the graduation of Andrew Luck or with Robert Griffin III from Baylor? These guys WERE the team and will be hard to reload with new and great personnel. The value of a strong second string signal caller can be enormous. Additionally, this is the time to see if the coaches game plan moves from throwing the ball to a ball controlled running game. Another important key of which may be MORE important than the return of the quarterback is the offensive line. If last years o-line graduated, this team is in trouble. Look for 3 to 5 o-line players returning as a minimum. If it is less than that...make a note. The difference between starting linemen and backups is often large and it usually takes a year for the line to work well as a unit. Defensively, the returning linebackers are critical. The linebackers are the players that are reading the offensive formations and shouting out plays and signals. It takes game time experience to learn that position. The difference between starting linemen and backups is often large and it usually takes a year for the line to work well as a unit.
NEW HEAD COACHES AND COORDINATORS
Even if it's Urban Meyer as the new Coach, it takes time for game time adjustments from him to his players. Remember, this is NOT his team. They were recruited by the previous coach. The new coach may be better than last years model, but his offense may be completely different and the correct thing to change but he might be implementing it with the wrong type of players. It takes a year to replace lasts year's team combined with recruiting for next seasons team. The coach could be great, but his team the previous coach recruited may not have the talent for the new game plan. That doesn't necessarily mean to run out and wager against teams with new coaches, but a smart bettor may be able to pinpoint a team struggling with its new system. An assistant coach who gets promoted to head coach is generally less likely to change the team's systems than a coach hired from another program, so it's a good idea to note where a new coach comes from and read on up on any perceived changes that will take place.
LOOK AHEAD SCHEDULE
Early in the season is when most teams are playing non-conference games and quite a few of these games will have one team vastly superior to the other. These are basically practice games for the home team. The visiting team is only there for the payday. The underdog is always the road team and it's mostly a one time event with no home and home agreements. Depending on the scheduling for the superior home team, this could be a look ahead game. If it is, note that the home team will not want to show their hand by anything they plan to use the following week. It's also the time to rest the starters in the second half and to evaluate the 2nd string players. If that is the case, the actual scenario is of the superior team playing a vanilla game against a team that is using that game as their "Super Bowl". This is a game that was planned years ago and used to entice and recruit any player that might go to that average football university. Additionally, a big favorite with a tough conference game the following week could very well have spent plenty of time practicing for next week's opponent and less time worrying about who is on tap today. Pay attention to not only this week's schedule, but take a look at next week's schedule as well.
CONCLUSION: BIG PROFITS
Betting college football offers MANY advantages the first two or three weeks of the season. But you must look at it from many different angles and perspectives. Factors that may not work later in the season are different than factors we look for and act upon in the early season with our analysis. Rest assured that there are many solid advantages and the opportunity to start your season off with tremendous profits is there for each and all...IF YOU DO THE HOMEWORK. Your choice is to do the work, or let me do what I've been doing for 25 years successfully. Betting and Winning!