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by ASA - 04/13/2005
Arena Football League Trend Analysis for Teams Running Wild!!
by ASA, Inc
For those of you that don't follow Arena football, much less wager on it, you might want to
start paying attention to the indoor football league. ASA, Inc has gotten off to a great start
in Arena Football with a 13 & 5 record, two of those 13 wins have been Top Rated 5-Star picks.
Last weekend we offered our Top Arena Football pick on this site and our pick not only won but covered the pointspread by 28 points! This weekend we see another great match up and if the linesmakers come out with the number we think they will, we will have another 5-Star Top Game for
sale on this site. Be sure to check back on Friday for complete details and don't miss another winner in Arena Football.
From a viewing standpoint, Arena Football offers plenty of differences
from the traditional NFL and College games. However, from a wagering
standpoint, there are some significant trends happening in 2005 that can
give you a statistical edge when playing totals in the AFL.
Much like the NFL, when teams run the ball consistently in the Arena
Football League the games tend to lean towards the under. This of course
limits turnovers and decreases the yards per play. This is especially
prevalent in the AFL as yards per rush is significantly lower than that of
the NFL game. In the AFL, the clocks runs even on an incomplete pass so on
the surface this angle may not seem to provide the edge you are looking
for, but let's take a look at some numbers through Week 11. There are five
teams that average right around 10 rush attempts per game so far in 2005
and the record for the under in their games is 19-30-2. These five teams
are Dallas, Grand Rapids, Nashville, Orlando, and Chicago. When these
teams meet head-to-head, the numbers are very solid. The under in
head-to-head meetings between these five teams is 6-1 (86%). The next
match up between two of these teams happens in Week 15 (May 7th) between
Grand Rapids and Nashville. In Week 16, Grand Rapids travels to Chicago
and in Week 17, Chicago will square off with the Kats in Nashville. Three
more chances to put this 86% angle into play and we will certainly
continue to analyze game by game this solid trend.
As far as individual teams, Chicago and Nashville tend to play under at a
more significant clip overall. In fact, the Chicago Rush has stayed under
in each of their last 9 games! Nashville is also a team that has played
under at a solid figure, hitting 70% (7-3) on the under in 2005. Each of
these two teams are at home this week against opponents that are not known
for their explosive offensive units! Thus, plenty of "stops" should be in
store this week. A "stop" here and there will eat the clock significantly
and both of the aforementioned teams have shown the ability to both get
stops and be stopped! For those that don't follow the AFL too closely, a
made FG or any turnover (downs included) is considered a "stop" in this
league. Keep your eyes on these two teams as the situation could present
the opportunity for a solid totals selection.
Best of luck from American Sports Analysts!!