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Baseball True Runs Formula
by Bryan Leonard - 06/25/2012
You may have noticed in our write-ups this year that we were quoting stats from our True Runs Formula data base. While we filmed a video discussing this earlier in the year we thought it would be a good time to revisit the subject.
There is a great amount of variance in baseball and I came up with this formula to sort of smooth out the outliers. Historically is takes 2 hits in order to score 1 run. If a team scores 5 runs in a game for example they should have produced about 10 hits. It's not exact obviously as teams that hit for power tend to not need as many hits in order to score, but overall a 2 to 1 ratio works out well.
When looking at a box score you simply divide the hits produced by 2 and get a true number. For example Team A wins the game 6-4 and outhits the opposition 11-5. In using my True Runs Formula I would have 6-4 runs & 5 1/2 to 2 1/2 hits. The winning team not only won on the scoreboard but they also won the hitting game. That team would receive a True Win while their opponent would get credit for a True Loss.
If in that game the team that won 6-4 didn't outhit the opposition neither team would be credited with a True Win or True Loss. That would eliminate an outcome that could have gone either way by the grouping of hits, which is random. We are trying to eliminate that randomness.
This process also works for totals. In a game lined at 8 1/2, Team A wins 6-4 and outhits the opposition 11-5 as in our first example. That result would result in a no play regarding the total. We had 10 total runs but the hits only resulted in 8 (16/2). If that game would have had 18 hits instead of 16 that would result in a True Runs Total of 9 and coupled with the actual runs of 10 would have been a True Runs Over result for the two teams.
Baseball is said to be a game of inches, and our True Runs Formula helps to even out the playing field and give a truer representation of the strengths of each team.